ETA's end to ceasefire a challenge to nationalists

The most obviously striking aspect of ETA's declaration that it would "reactivate the use of armed struggle" from last Friday…

The most obviously striking aspect of ETA's declaration that it would "reactivate the use of armed struggle" from last Friday was that it was made with words, and not with explosives or bullets.

There is a deliberate ambiguity in its conclusion, which states that "it remains in the hands of ETA to inform its units when to act". As of last night, no actions have taken place, and there is a growing feeling in the Basque Country that none is likely in the immediate future. Whatever is happening, and it is certainly still open to several interpretations, it is a far cry from the IRA strategy at Canary Wharf.

Less obvious, but perhaps equally significant, is the fact that most of the statement was not directed against the old enemy, the Spanish government. Instead, ETA's main target was the moderate Basque nationalist parties, theoretically its allies in the resolution of their common conflict with Madrid.

ETA argues that it left Basque political progress in the hands of Basque society when it hung up its guns in September 1998, and now it feels that that society has let it down. If you don't buck up and move things along faster towards the goal of self-determination, ETA is saying, we will start killing people once again. It is a grim and depressing challenge.

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One of the keys to the ceasefire, in September 1998, was a long process of discussion between the moderate nationalist parties and ETA's political supporters in Herri Batasuna. This resulted in the Declaration of Lizarra, which proclaimed that "the Basque people should have a say and right to decide" - code for an eventual referendum, in both the Spanish and French Basque regions, on full Basque sovereignty.

The moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) had rejected the limits placed on Basque self-determination by the 1978 Spanish Constitution, but had subsequently accepted a Statute of Autonomy within those limits, which gave them extensive powers of self-government within Spain.

However, the PNV and another moderate grouping still harboured an aspiration for Basque independence. This would include not only the three provinces covered by the autonomy statute, but also Navarre, which has a large anti-nationalist majority, and three small provinces in France, where Basque nationalism remains very weak.

The Lizarra declaration, explicitly influenced by the Northern Ireland peace process, was essentially the formation of a pan-nationalist front to achieve that aspiration.

In the regional elections which followed six weeks later, the radicals of Herri Batasuna gained most, taking three extra seats. The other parties to the declaration, however, actually lost four seats between them, and the strongly pro-Spanish Partido Popular, in government in Madrid, rose to become the second force in the Basque parliament.

The ensuing year has seen little progress towards "a Basque say and a right to decide". A minority nationalist government was formed in the autonomous parliament, with support from Herri Batasuna, and an assembly of municipal councillors from the seven provinces has been convened, as an embryonic Basque national forum. But the response from Navarre has been predictably weak, and, from the French provinces, almost derisory.

ETA's latest statement assesses this situation bluntly as "stagnant, with a stench of putrefaction", and castigates its moderate allies for failing to advance matters. ETA and Herri Batasuna have become deeply suspicious in recent months that the moderate nationalist parties are taking them for a ride. They would be quite content, the radicals fear, to take the credit for bringing peace to the Basque Country, and keeping the aspiration to independence purely rhetorical.

Hours before the ceasefire deadline expired, the PNV moved to calm these fears by reaffirming its commitment to "a new kind of sovereignty for the Basque Country", and condemning the French and Spanish governments for failing to support the peace process.

Yesterday, Mr Gorka Martinez, international spokesperson for Herri Batasuna, told The Irish Times that this move was "very positive". He insisted that ETA had no desire to return to violence. "What I think the organisation wanted was to create a political convulsion, generating a higher level of activity, precisely so that it will not have to go back to armed struggle."

He also pointed to the other aspect of ETA's statement, which attacks the Spanish and French governments for continued repression. Key members of ETA's negotiating team have been arrested during the ceasefire, and movement on prisoner issues has been painfully slow.

"The difference with Northern Ireland is that since the Downing Street Declaration, London and Dublin have been committed to resolving the conflict. There is no evidence of that from Madrid or Paris."

It has certainly sometimes appeared that the conservative Spanish government regarded the ceasefire as a victory over ETA. As Mr Martinez puts it: "Whether you like it or not, ETA still exists."