ESRI expects jobless rate to hit 8%

UNEMPLOYMENT WILL continue to drift upwards to over 8 per cent in 2009, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) is expected to forecast in its next quarterly economic commentary due later this month.

The likelihood of an upward revision of the figures emerged at a special meeting of the Labour parliamentary party in Clonmel yesterday, which was addressed by Alan Barrett of the ESRI, the principal author of the institute's quarterly economic commentaries.

Speaking after the session, Labour deputy leader and finance spokeswoman Joan Burton said Dr Barrett told the meeting the ESRI now expected higher unemployment than previously forecast.

In its last commentary published in late June, the ESRI said that the unemployment rate would increase this year and would be above 7 per cent in 2009.

In a briefing to journalists, Ms Burton said the ESRI's forecast of 7 per cent looked like being revised upwards to 8 per cent. If that were to materialise, the number of people registered as unemployed could rise to 300,000 during 2009.

"The determination has been worse than they anticipated. The concern is that unemployment is continuing to drift upwards," said Ms Burton.

"What is being suggested is that the previous commentary from June is being revised and that overall expectations are now for higher unemployment."

Dr Barrett was one of two speakers who addressed TDs and Senators during yesterday's session on the economy. The other speaker was Ian Talbot, chief executive of Chambers Ireland.

Ms Burton said that the second important theme of Dr Barrett's presentation was the risk of the short-term unemployed being left without work in the long term.