Temperatures to be back in the twenties by next week

Climate change may mean ‘warmer, drier summers’ in Ireland

Forecasters are optimistic that the recent sunshine and clear skies will last until next week at least.

The warm, settled weather is due to continue into the weekend, however a band of low pressure which is pushing up from the Bay of Biscay could lead to showers over Munster and south Leinster on Thursday evening.

Friday will be dry with hazy sunshine over the northern half of the country and a risk of showers in the south and southeast. Temperatures will remain high and range from 18-22 degrees.

The rain could become heavy on Friday, with a risk of isolated showers on Saturday, but most parts of the country will stay dry and sunny. Temperatures will drop slightly over the weekend to 13 or 14 degrees but should rise steadily early next week.

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Temperatures are expected to be back up in the early twenties by Tuesday and Wednesday with dry, sunny weather.

Climatologist Siobhan Ryan said there's no direct correlation between a cold spring and a warm summer but Irish 'summer' weather does tend to settle into milder temperatures in late June and July.

"If the summer starts off well, normally it's a good sign," said Ms Ryan. "High pressure can stay firmly in place this time of year and when you get sunny conditions in Ireland they tend to last a number of days."

Although it’s difficult to link climate change with the warmer summer weather we’ve experienced on Irish shores over the past two years, Ms Ryan said recent extreme weather events, including the winter storms in 2013 and 2014 and the severe cold snap in late 2010, could indicate a change in weather patterns.

“I definitely think there are more extreme weather conditions occurring,” she said. Climate change could mean “warmer, drier summers” in Ireland.

Climatologist Séamus Walsh was more reluctant to link warmer Irish summers with global climate change.

“What we’ve seen is a rise in temperatures over the past 30 years or so but we couldn’t go so far to say better summers or worse winters,” said Mr Walsh. “One or two wet summers doesn’t set a trend for wet summers and climate change.”

Mr Walsh said recent climate projections indicate an increase in warmer, drier summers and milder, wetter winters in Ireland in the coming years.

However, he said as long as there’s ice in the Arctic Circle, Ireland will continue to experience cold snaps during the winter months.

“Further north in the Arctic regions the temperature rise is about twice as fast as elsewhere on the globe,” said Mr Walsh, adding that climate change is most noticeable in areas which already experience extreme weather conditions.

“If you’re living on the edge of a dessert, any minor change will have an immediate effect on your lifestyle.

“We’re living in a temperate climate so the effects don’t show and we don’t get the extremes.”

Sorcha Pollak

Sorcha Pollak

Sorcha Pollak is an Irish Times reporter and cohost of the In the News podcast