Enthusiasm for joining EU shown in survey

STRANGE as it may seem to our jaded, cynical eye, there are people in Europe whose enthusiasm for membership of the EU knows almost no bounds.

In the 10 countries of central and eastern Europe which have pre accession Europe Agreements with the EU, nine out of 10 people say they would vote to join the Union if there were a referendum now. Perhaps we take it all too much for granted.

The figure comes from a remarkable Eurobarometer survey conducted for the Commission of attitudes in 10 Europe Agreement (EA) countries, six former or current members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including western Russia, and three other, unaffiliated middle European countries.

Taken at the end of 1995 but published only last week, the survey provides a valuable insight into the current trends in countries in often painful transition.

Taking the four main indicators of internal satisfaction - support for direction country is going in, support for the market economy, and satisfaction on both democracy and human rights - Albania turns out to "be the country most optimistic of those surveyed. Albanians, although by far the poorest in central Europe, are happier than they have been at any time in the last five years, with indicators rising dramatically.

On the other hand the dissatisfaction of the Bulgarians with their democracy is such - at 83 per cent - that the survey warns it is unlikely to be turned around in the near future. And Hungary, too, faces a crisis of confidence with 85 per cent unhappy about the direction the country is heading.

Poland is alone of the countries with Europe Agreements where all four indicators show a sharp rise in the last year. It manifests continuing very strong support for the market economy.

In Romania concern about human rights is on the rise again, with nearly three in four negative about the situation.

Of the CIS countries, Armenia reflects the highest levels of concern about democracy and human rights next to Russia, 85 per cent of whose citizens believe that human rights are little, or not at all, respected in their country.

The year 1995 confirmed the economic gulf between the Europe Agreement countries and the CIS states. Only the former (plus Albania and Croatia) recorded positive economic growth for the second year, with Kazakhstan and Armenia both recording declines in GNP of the order of 12 per cent.

But the poll reflects only small shifts in the EA countries towards a stronger feel good sense, with only one in 20 saying their financial position had improved on the previous year.

In most of the countries surveyed, people's economic expectations are, however, on the upturn, with the Poles manifesting the greatest shift towards optimism, and Hungarians most pessimistic. Sixty three per cent of them believe household incomes will worsen this year.

Support for the market economy, after some six years of painful transition - for some one partial - is still strong in the EA countries, with some 53 per cent agreeing that "the creation of a market economy largely free from state control" is right. A quarter of the population thinks it is wrong.

In the former CIS states there is a very different attitude to the market, with an almost complete inversion of the figures (22 per cent in favour to 59 per cent against). Opposition is strongest in Russia at 65 per cent, a position reflected in the strong electoral showing of the Communist Party in the elections last December.

The view that there are no economic reforms taking place in their country is strongest in Ukraine (30 per cent), Belarus (29 per cent) and Russia (26 per cent).

Within the EA group Poland (62 per cent) and Romania (64 per cent) reflect strongest support for the market.

In terms of their attitudes to the EU, the survey finds very strong support for EU membership in the EA countries, with 90 per cent saying they would vote in favour if a referendum were held now (Romania, 97 per cent). Membership of Nato is almost as highly favoured with Romania (95 per cent) and Poland (92 per cent) most keen and Bulgaria (52 per cent) least.

But the image of the EU is disimproving in all the EA countries, with one in 10 Lithuanians, Bulgarians and Czechs in the last year moving to a negative view. While some 40 per cent of those surveyed in the EA countries have a positive view of the EU (23 per cent are neutral, and 6 per cent negative), this is the case for only 30 per cent of the CIS states.

Thirty four per cent of EA citizens see their future most closely tied up with the EU, while 16 per cent see the US in this role.

In the CIS, public opinion seems increasingly to favour closer internal ties, with 55 per cent of people (excluding Russians) seeing their future most intimately linked with Russia, up 6 per cent on last year.

The survey also asked about languages used: In the 13 countries of central Europe surveyed Russian is the language most often spoken (20 per cent), followed by English (12 per cent), German (12 per cent) and French (4 per cent). The figures for Russian are considerably higher in the CIS states while in Russia itself only one in five speak speaks a second language.

The 19 states surveyed include: Europe Agreement countries: Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia. Former CIS states: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Georgia. Others: Croatia, Albania, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM).