THE THREE churches that face each other across what is colloquially known as Holy Corner, in the affluent suburb of Morningside, provide a metaphor of sorts for the electoral contest in Edinburgh South.
As they compete for believers, so the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Labour vie for votes in this, one of Scotland’s most marginal seats.
Morningside’s obvious wealth – its elegant Georgian mansions are home to one of the highest concentrations of millionaires in the UK – might suggest Tory leanings, but appearances can be deceptive here in the corner of Edinburgh where Muriel Spark set her novel The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie.
Edinburgh South, whose denizens include authors JK Rowling and Ian Rankin, has been in Labour hands since the party wrested the seat from
Tory grandee Michael Ancram in 1987.
Ten years later, Labour’s majority had climbed to more than 11,000, but it plummeted by more than half in 2001 as the Lib Dems polled second.
In the last general election, Labour’s majority was reduced further still to a gossamer-thin 405 votes. Such a reversal of fortunes has made the Lib Dems confident they will achieve the swing of just 0.45 per cent required to overturn one of Labour’s smallest majorities. The Conservatives also entertain hopes that the seat will return to the Tory fold.
That prospect fills retiree Chris Powell with horror. Like many in a constituency long accustomed to tactical voting, she has decided to go against the habits of a lifetime to vote Lib Dem on Thursday.
“As a longstanding Labour voter, it’s not going to be easy but I’ll do anything to keep David Cameron out,” she said.
“I’d be totally distraught if the Tories got in.”
Patricia Richards and her husband acknowledge that, as lifelong Tory voters who have decided to vote Labour this week, they are something of an anomaly.
“I just can’t stand Cameron,” said Patricia. “He’s too smooth. He doesn’t come across as genuine and I don’t like his yuppie attitude. We’ve decided to go with the devil we know and Brown seems honest.
“The Lib Dems? I’m not sure they know what their own policies are. It’s difficult to take them seriously.”
The general election looks very different when observed from north of the border. Cameronite Conservatism appears to have had little effect on the Scots, many of whom are proud to have a compatriot as prime minister. The main tussle is between Labour and the Scottish National Party (SNP).
Rangers owner Sir David Murray may have come out to bat for the Tories at the weekend, arguing that a Conservative victory would be in the “long- term” interests of the country, but the party faces an uphill struggle to garner more than its one – of 59 – Scottish seat at Westminster.
Recent polls put the Conservative share of the vote close to the lacklustre showing they managed in 2005.
The Nick Clegg effect also appears to be less pronounced in Scotland. Some attribute this to the role played by the SNP in mopping up voters disaffected with the politics of red and
blue.
However the SNP, by all accounts, is not having a good campaign.
Many warned of hubris when SNP leader Alex Salmond, who is also Scotland’s first minister, last year claimed the party could win at least 20 seats, almost three times the number it currently holds. The party was left fuming after Salmond was excluded from the three televised leaders’ debates.
Several recent polls suggest an unravelling of SNP support, though two polls at the weekend showed the party appears to have clawed some of that back.
Nevertheless, Salmond’s boast of “making Westminster dance to a Scottish jig” could yet come to fruition, given the party’s position in the event of a hung parliament.
The SNP’s nationalist agenda could also stand to benefit from a Cameron win. The Tory leader has proposed a needs-based alternative to the Barnett formula, the system under which Scotland receives a higher amount of public spending than England. Any move to revise the current arrangement is likely to play into the hands of the SNP.
The Scottish party has formed a “Celtic alliance” with Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru to bolster their collective influence after the election.
Labour has warned though that the bloc could damage Scottish interests, with the two nationalist parties at cross purposes on a number of issues.
“Plaid Cymru are vigorously opposed to the Barnett formula, which provides a good deal for Scotland. An alliance with the Welsh nationalists could hurt Scotland hard,” Mark Lazarowicz, Labour’s candidate for Edinburgh North and Leith, said last week.
“Other than a narrow separatist agenda and an eye for opportunism, these two parties have little in common.”