EGYPT: Egypt has put a positive spin on Dr Hans Blix's tougher-than-expected report on arms inspections, emphasising the need for more time to complete weapons inspections.
"It is still possible to avert a military strike," the government spokesman, Mr Nabil Osman, said yesterday. "Both Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei stressed the need for more time. The inspection process is an ongoing process."
Nevertheless, there was unease at the change of tone towards Iraq in Mr Blix's speech.
"Before Mr Blix spoke we saw a picture of Iraq co-operating, with a need for it to improve access. Now the focus has changed to Iraq's non-co-operation, which is a change of emphasis," said Dr Gamil abd el-Gawad, head of international studies at the Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic Studies.
Opposed to war but mindful of its $2 billion a year in assistance from Washington, Egypt finds itself in a difficult position as the US and Britain build up their military forces in the Gulf. As the largest Arab country, it generally sees itself as a regional leader, but so far its response to the crisis has been quiet diplomacy and public warnings of the consequences of war for the rest of the Middle East.
"There are big questions marks," Dr Abd el-Gawad said. "Whether the war will be long or short, whether or not there will be many civilian casualties, whether Iraq will keep its territorial integrity, whether conflict will inspire sectarian tension in other countries, whether Israel will get involved . . . there is a great deal of uncertainty."
Although it lies thousands of kilometres from Iraq, Egypt would feel the effects of war immediately. Mr Fayza Abul Naga, the State Minister for Foreign Affairs and Revenue, stated last week that a war would cost Egypt's already shaky economy $6.8 billion in lost tourism and export revenues.
Unemployment would also skyrocket. Officially tourism employs 2.2 million Egyptians, unofficially as many as 10 million. In addition, some six million Egyptians work in Gulf countries, sending home much-needed hard currency. In the chaos that would erupt in the event of a prolonged conflict, many of them would lose their jobs.
For years, Egyptians have been outraged at the effect of UN sanctions on ordinary Iraqis, but public anger remained contained until the Palestinian intifada broke out two years ago. America's perceived bias toward Israel has made it a particular target. Students and ordinary citizens defied the state's repressive emergency laws and took to the streets.
Without balanced American intervention, argue Egyptian officials, the continuation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict threatens regional stability and undermines American actions in the region.
The Egyptian government's close ties to the US also leave it vulnerable to public ire. Such is the official nervousness at popular discontent that when thousands marched in anti-war demonstrations across the world last week, just 100 people in Cairo were met by at least 500 armed riot police. Demonstrators, unable to march, dispersed in just an hour.