ARREST OF DOMINIQUE STRAUSS-KAHN:DOMINIQUE STRAUSS-KAHN'S arrest was greeted with shock and disbelief in Paris, where political rivals were already discounting his chances of running in next year's presidential election.
“It’s over,” said Bernard Debré, a national assembly member from President Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP party, referring to Mr Strauss-Kahn’s campaign for the Socialist Party’s (PS) nomination. The alleged incident in a hotel in New York was “a humiliation and an affront to the honour of France”, he added.
Official reactions from the Élysée Palace and the PS were more circumspect, both urging caution and noting that Mr Strauss-Kahn intended to plead not guilty to the charges.
“We have to be extremely prudent in analysis and comment,” government spokesman François Baroin told French television, adding that the Élysée’s position was to respect the presumption of innocence.
Martine Aubry, the socialist leader, called for party unity after what she called the “thunderbolt” of the weekend’s events.
“The news we received from New York last night struck like a thunderbolt,” Ms Aubry said in a statement. “I call on the socialists to stay united and reasonable.”
The fallout from events in New York could dramatically change the course of French politics. Mr Strauss-Kahn was considered the candidate best placed to defeat the unpopular Mr Sarkozy in 2012, and it had become clear in recent weeks that he intended to leave his post at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – probably next month – to declare for the socialist primary.
Were DSK – as he is known in France – to be ruled out, Mr Sarkozy’s re-election odds would shorten. Despite the president’s low approval ratings, which have remained at about 30 per cent for more than a year, recent polls showed that only Mr Strauss-Kahn would defeat him by more than five points.
DSK’s momentum meant it was likely that rival socialists such as Ms Aubry would stand aside for him. If he were to be removed from the equation, the party’s selection process would be thrown into uncertainty. Senior figures such as Ms Aubry, former leader François Hollande and Ségolène Royal, the defeated candidate in 2007, would consider their prospects enhanced.
Mr Hollande – who declared his candidacy earlier this month and draws support from the same social democratic wing of the party as Mr Strauss-Kahn, could be one of the main beneficiaries.
More broadly, Mr Strauss-Kahn’s troubles could present opportunities for others outside the two dominant political blocs. Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, said the allegations against Mr Strauss-Kahn had ended his hopes of running in 2012. “The case and the charges . . . mark the end of his campaign and pre-campaign for the presidency and will most likely prompt the IMF to ask him to leave his post,” she said.
Ms Le Pen would stand to gain from a poor showing by the PS candidate, with some polls ranking her in second place to Mr Strauss-Kahn.
In an indication of the political climate in Paris, head of the Christian Democratic party Christine Boutin suggested that Mr Strauss-Kahn may have been set up. “I really believe that somebody set a trap for Dominique Strauss-Kahn to fall into,” she told French television.
With the IMF deeply involved in efforts to contain the sovereign debt crisis and manage the bailout loans for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, Mr Strauss-Kahn’s arrest comes at an awkward time for the organisation.