Demise of farming would affect more than rural Ireland

There is some unease in rural Ireland about how the Minister for Finance will deal with the farmers on Wednesday.

There is some unease in rural Ireland about how the Minister for Finance will deal with the farmers on Wednesday.

Mr McCreevy read the signals well some weeks ago when he delivered a fairly sharp snub to the farming lobby, which was seeking a family income supplement for its poorer members.

Outside the agricultural community, the level of mistrust of farmers is at an all-time high, and the protestations that there is a "crisis" out there will bring few tears to the eyes of urban taxpayers.

On the platform in Merrion Square on the day of the farmers' protest rally in Dublin, there were at least four millionaires whose definition of an income crisis was likely to differ dramatically from that of the ordinary working man. Indeed, it would differ considerably from that of many of the farmers who marched in the rain, and who now face a real threat to their future.

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On the face of it, how could there be a crisis in farming, when the 130,000 of them receive nearly a billion pounds a year in envelopes from Brussels and also get paid for what they produce?

And when the Court of Auditors came out with figures showing that a tiny core of farmers/businessmen receive huge levels of supports from the EU, few people dug beyond the obvious to find out what was going on.

The national media, which are - in general - made up of middle-income, middle-class, middle-aged, overtaxed urban dwellers, were quick to fall on the agricultural sector and verbally beat it to death, without any great analysis. The Tribunal of Inquiry into the Beef Industry was resurrected, and a retrial opened by the commentators who conveniently forgot that beef farmers were the first victims of the irregularities and the taxpayers were the second.

There is a huge disparity of income between the various sectors in farming. They make stark reading when they are analysed.

Dr Jim Phelan, head of the department of agribusiness in UCD, carried out such an analysis, and found that 70,000 farmers have an income from the land of less than £156 per week. He said 37,000 of these have no other source of income and without support they will have to join the 3,000 each year quitting the land.

He was clear that 14,000 farmers will have to quit anyway because they cannot hope to get a living from the land, and currently earn less from it than they would receive from social welfare.

But the most interesting point he made was that for the first time since Ireland entered the EU, the middle-sized farmer is under severe pressure. He said that without help, this group of full-time farmers, who keep rural Ireland alive with their farming activities, will be forced out, with enormous social and economic consequences.

The reason these farmers will not survive without help is that the price they are being paid for their cattle and other produce is below the cost of production. These price reductions are caused mainly by external forces: they are fuelled by over-production in Europe, a fall in consumption, and the collapse and weakening of some international economies.

He agreed that if the EU direct subsidies were taken away from farmers, very few would survive economically, and it could mean the end of beef and sheep production in this State.

What is not being said in farming, but is now fully accepted, is that Ireland will lose most of its middle-sized farmers early in the next century and we will probably end up with about 30,000 economically viable farmers.

The two main farming organisations have a real crisis. They know they will lose clients, but the truth is that the larger farmers, who control these organisations, know their survival on the land can be achieved only by the smaller ones releasing their land to them.

A consensus has, it appears, emerged. It would appear to involve keeping the envelope payments flowing, and if necessary, putting in more national funding. That is why the opening moves made in this week's Budget are so important.

Because of the age profile on Irish farms, the problem will literally die away in about a decade when there will be a new order anyway, with an enlarged European Union and a new World Trade deal.

Believe it or not, some of us appreciate farmers and do not believe they are all money-grabbing, angel dust-abusing, tax-avoiding polluters. Farming is no place for the wide-eyed and innocent because there are some in the sector who are as misguided, greedy and ignorant as some lawyers, bankers or, dare I say, journalists.

Some of us believe farming culture, which is the culture of rural Ireland in which farmers are an important minority, should be protected and even funded. Without them, rural Ireland will fade away.

For some of us, the "pay them till they die or go away" option is not at all frightening, as long as they continue to be allowed their dignity. This will delay the dramatic growth of large industrial farms with even greater potential to pollute the environment or the food chain. It could also prevent the most beautiful parts of the State being covered by softwood forestry which pollutes, provides minimal employment and creates tracts of green wilderness.

It will also slow urban growth and prevent our cities becoming more unmanageable than they are now - something most urban people should welcome.