Collapse of Mobutu regime likely as Kisangani falls

AN AIR of doom has settled on Zaire's beleaguered regime after the rebel seizure of Kisangani at the weekend and the insurgents…

AN AIR of doom has settled on Zaire's beleaguered regime after the rebel seizure of Kisangani at the weekend and the insurgents threat to go all the way to the capital unless the government negotiates itself into oblivion.

As President Mobutu Sese Seko called off plans to fly home today from France, where he has spent most of the five-month civil war recuperating from cancer, Zaire's cabinet held a crisis meeting. Its most significant decision was to dismiss the public works minister for daring to publicly criticise the misappropriation of government funds.

While the government appeared paralysed by the loss of Zaire's third largest city, which had been the base for the army's operations against the rebels, news of its fall was greeted with quiet satisfaction on the capital's streets. Few believe they will have to wait for the rebels to march into Kinshasa to see the regime tumble.

Even senior politicians say something must give before long. Some privately speculate that unless the government takes a bold step, such as direct negotiations with the rebels, a military coup may be in the making.

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The rebel Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire now controls as much as one-quarter of Zaire. Its leader, Mr Laurent Kabila, said in the absence of talks he will send his forces on towards Kinshasa.

"We are still advancing, we must liberate the whole country ... we are going everywhere."

The collapse of resistance in Kisangani demonstrated more clearly than any other rebel victory that the alliance is unlikely to face any serious obstacles as it sweeps further west. The government had thrown the best of its resources into defending the city. But the deployment of top generals - including the army chief-of-staff, tons of new weapons, Russian-made bombers and helicopter gunships, and hundreds of foreign mercenaries in Kisangani - barely hindered the rebels once they decided to move on the city. They seized control in less than a day.

Particularly worrying for the government are reports that some of its troops switched sides as the rebels approached the city.

Hostility between the army and government is increasingly open. Generals have complained publicly about the administration's failure to give them the means to fight.

The near complete collapse of the government's military strategy leaves it with few battlefield options while Mr Kabila has a variety of possibilities. The rebels could press on directly to Kinshasa, as Mr Kabila threatened. But it is a 750-mile trek, much of it along dilapidated roads through thick rain forest.

There are juicier targets to hand. The rebels are pushing ever closer to Mbuji-Mayi, the city at the heart of Zaire's diamond industry. Taking it would cut off an important source of government revenue and, more importantly, the fountain of much of the cash in politicians' and army officers' pockets.

The alliance is also pushing deeper into mineral-rich Shaba, Mr Kabila's home province. Although he is not particularly popular in Shaba, anti-Mobutu sentiment runs deep and his men are sure of another welcome.

Mr Kabila has also said he intends to target Mr Mobutu's hometown, Gbadolite, in the north-west. It would be a largely symbolic victory as the town lies on a road to nowhere in particular. But it would deliver Mr Mobutu's palace into rebel hands, providing another important psychological blow against the doomed regime.

. Mr Mobutu was hospitalised yesterday, aides at his villa on the French Riviera said last night. A source close to Mr Mobutu said the Zairean president was expected to leave Monaco's Princess Grace hospital today but warned that he might stay in for longer.