The approval rating of the Government, satisfaction with the Taoiseach and support for the Coalition parties have all increased, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.
As the tax cuts announced in the December Budget take effect, satisfaction with the Government stands at 60 per cent, up five percentage points since January and up 14 points since last November.
If the party support figures were replicated in a general election, the Fianna Fail-Progressive Democrats Government would be returned to power, with Fianna Fail even having a chance of winning the overall Dail majority it needs to govern on its own.
However, the poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, before the dramatic revelations of payments to politicians at the Flood tribunal.
The state of the parties, excluding the 20 per cent who were undecided or indicated that they did not intend to vote, is: Fianna Fail 51 per cent, up two percentage points since the last Irish Times/MRBI poll in January; Fine Gael 22 per cent, down four percentage points; Labour 10 per cent, down one point; Progressive Democrats 4 per cent, up one; Green Party 4 per cent, up one; Sinn Fein 3 per cent, unchanged; Workers' Party 1 per cent, unchanged; and others 5 per cent, up two.
The core support for the parties is: Fianna Fail 40 per cent, up one point in three months; Fine Gael 18 per cent, down two points; Labour 8 per cent, down one point; PDs 3 per cent, up one point; Green Party 4 per cent, up one point; Sinn Fein 3 per cent, unchanged; Workers' Party 1 per cent, unchanged; and others 4 per cent, up one point.
Satisfaction with the Government now stands at 60 per cent, compared with 55 per cent last January and 46 per cent last November. Of those questioned, 32 per cent were dissatisfied with the Government, while 8 per cent expressed no opinion.
The poll will disappoint the main Opposition parties, with Fine Gael and Labour both seeing slippage in support as the Government appears to be benefiting from its management of a consistently strong economy.
Support for the Government parties is also likely to have been boosted by the significant income-tax reductions which have taken effect this month.
With Fianna Fail intending to run a strongly "presidential-style" campaign in the next general election, the party will be gratified at the continuing large gap in popularity between the Taoiseach and the leader of the Opposition.
Mr Ahern's satisfaction rating stands at 69 per cent, up three points since January, while the Fine Gael leader, Mr John Bruton, is at 42 per cent, a drop of three points. The leader of the Progressive Democrats, Ms Mary Harney, stands at 59 per cent, up three points, while the Labour Party leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, is at 50 per cent, down one point.
While Fianna Fail support is lower in Dublin than throughout the rest of the State, Mr Ahern's personal rating is at its highest in the capital. Fianna Fail scores particularly strongly among people aged between 18 and 24, but is weakest in the 25-34 age bracket. Its support is relatively even across all social groups.
The poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State last Monday and Tuesday.
According to a formula devised by MRBI from its opinion-poll data to take account of recent overstatements in polls of Fianna Fail support and the growing incidence of lower voter turnout, MRBI estimates that the actual result of a general election held this week would be: Fianna Fail 45 per cent; Fine Gael 24 per cent; Labour 12 per cent; PDs 4 per cent; Green Party 5 per cent; Sinn Fein 4 per cent; others 6 per cent.