1 Fianna Fáil and the PDs plus like-minded Independents:This is the Taoiseach's favoured option and the most likely to emerge after the soundings and negotiations that will take place in the coming days.
Mary Harney would have to remain as Minister for Health in this scenario and a disparate group of Independents kept in line to provide the stable government Mr Ahern has promised. Some of the Independents might be offered ministerial office while others will be more interested in constituency deals.
2 Fianna Fáil and the Greens
This is the second most likely option if the first one fails to materialise. The Greens are ready and willing to go into government but they would insist on a programme for government that met their requirements on the environment, energy and planning. The party would like the Department of the Environment but that would be a big ask of Fianna Fáil. There is an outside possibility of a deal with both the PDs and the Greens if the Independents were not amenable.
3 Fianna Fáil and Labour:
It is very unlikely that such a coalition will emerge in the light of Pat Rabbitte's consistent opposition to it and the electoral mandate he received to put Fianna Fáil out of office. While some of his colleagues may hanker after office they would find it very difficult to get such a deal through a party conference. In any case, Fianna Fáil would have to give away too many Cabinet positions.
4 Fine Gael, Labour, the Greens, PDs and Independents:
By far the most unlikely option but it will remain a remote possibility until the Dáil elects a new taoiseach. Enda Kenny has not conceded defeat and is hoping for a repeat of a 1948 scenario when all the anti-Fianna Fáil forces came together to put Dev out. It would require Labour and the PDs to share power and agree on issues like health that have divided them.