IN THE post Cold War world we are constantly being told by bankers (and others whose grasp of reality is often deficient) that democracy has come to Latin Amer to stay. To some extent this happy analysis is true. But it does overlook the fact that in some countries of the region the military are there still, behind the arras ready to jump out and halt proceedings if their interests are in jeopardy.
And, sadly, it looks as if the uniformados are gently coaxing along a new regional arms race encouraged by European and US gentlemen in sharp suits answering to sales directors at British Aerospace, Matra or Raytheon.
That will result in money being wasted on unnecessary weapons while the children of Latin America play in the dirt outside schools where there are few desks and fewer books. It is a truism that Latin America has the widest gap between rich and poor of all developing regions and that its education systems are risible compared to South East Asia. Virtually everywhere the military need to be kept under civilian control.
Colombia, where military atrocities have gone unpunished for decades, is one such case. In El Salvador and Guatemala, colonels who are guilty of the most wicked deeds are still walking free among their erstwhile victims. In Chile, Gen Augusto Pinochet doesn't occupy the limelight as much as he once did, but when he growls the country still takes notice: Pinochet's finger is still on the trigger.
On Tuesday, September 11th, 1973, in Santiago, the capital of Chile, I saw Pinochet leap to international prominence as he toppled the constitutionally elected president, Salvador Allende. He promised new elections and a rapid return to democracy. But in fact he stayed until 1990, exercising supreme power and gaining an international reputation for cruelty, torture and acts of terrorism. He set about killing his enemies everywhere from Washington to Rome and Buenos Aires.
Though he is no longer the dictator and in his early 80s, he clings on to immense power as commander in chief of the Chilean army. He is not shy of using that power, and has put tanks on the streets without warning.
He will command the troops until next year and thereafter will be a senator for life under a constitution he wrote himself. In his grey general's cape, he certainly suggests a man who doesn't like to be trifled with. But recently he was trifled with and in no small measure, as I saw on a visit to Chile this month.
Patricio Aylwin, the usually cautious Christian Democratic politician who was freely elected to succeed him as President seven years ago, gave an interview to a Mexican newspaper. In it former President Aylwin, now in his early 70s, who had previously avoided any head to head clash with Pinochet, surprised many when he confessed that he had been wrong to support Pinochet's coup against Allende 24 bears ago and had been mistaken in thinking that the general was basically a democrat. This avowal produced growls, indeed roars, of anger from Pinochet, his generals and his many civilian allies.
The generals wrote a letter expressing outrage that former President Aylwin, a mere civilian, could have had the cheek to criticise, the man they regarded as the saviour of the nation. And their supporters on the strong right wing of Chilean politics echoed the anger of the officers.
Ex President Aylwin has long been known to have been harbouring remorse for his support of the 1973 coup, and for his silence over the general's abuses of human rights. These he had learnt about from other members of the Aylwin family who had worked to relieve them. But the former president appeared to be taken back at the storm he had conjured up. "I fell under the horses' hooves but my friends supported me and that was a comfort," Alywin said.
But on April 7th, at a military parade, Pinochet, usually grimly taciturn, could not resist one last swipe at the presumptuous civilian. "No normal person gets under horses' hooves," snarled Pinochet.
But the continuing display of military arrogance in Chile's body politic involves more than merely verbal jousting between two old men. It certainly reminds the world at large that the country is not a full democracy.
It also underlines the fact that Chile is about to spend an enormous amount of money again on armaments. Under Pinochet's constitution the armed forces automatically receive 10 per cent of the sales revenue - not the profit, the revenue - of the state copper corporation, the biggest industry and largest exporter in the country.
With this and other money the army is planning to buy German tanks, reportedly 160 of them, the navy is contracting for two submarines, while the air forces announced it wants a fleet of the latest US F-16 fighters.
These purchases by a country which is under no overt threat from its neighbours threaten a new arms race in a region where there are still too many soldiers.
The present President is Eduardo Frei. His late father, also Eduardo Frei, was president before him. Charming and distinguished people, they are descended from Swiss immigrants. But I do wish they had done a bit more to stop the militaristic rot in Chile.
There are Chileans who take comfort from the fact that Pinochet is an octogenarian who will soon be taking off his uniform and putting aside that great grey cape of his for good. But the optimists might well ponder on the fact that one of the soldiers present at the parade I mentioned the other day, was a young second lieutenant. His name is Augusto Pinochet. He is the former dictator's grandson. And he commands a tank.