THE centre left Olive coalition led by economics Prof Romano Prodi yesterday emerged as the narrow winner of the 13th Italian general election of the post war period. Prof Prodi will now form Italy's first left wing government and one in which the former communist Democratic Left (PDS) is clearly dominant.
Speaking to reporters yesterday morning, a jubilant Prof Prodi said. "I'm ready to govern and to govern for five years. There's already been an extraordinary positive indication this morning from the stock exchanges and currency markets. It seems to me that minute by minute the Olive is being confirmed as a viable government force."
Asked what his government's first initiative might be, Prof Prodi's response was immediate "Our first priority will be to confront the problem of unemployment among young people in the south. Forgive me if I sound banal but this is an obsession with me.
The Olive coalition comprises not only the PDS but also the Italian Popular Party ( formerly Christian Democrat), the Italian Renewal Movement of the current caretaker Prime Minister, Mr Lamberto Dini, and the Greens. It has scored an against the odds victory over the centre right Freedom Alliance led by media tycoon Mr Silvio Berlusconi, comprising his own Forza Italia party, the former fascist Alleanza Nazionale (AN) and two former Christian Democrat factions.
For the defeated centre right coalition, Mr Berlusconi preferred not to offer an immediate comment, leaving his number two, AN leader, Mr Gianfranco Fini, to officially accept the verdict of the ballot box. Mr Fini said "We're not crying but clearly Prodi and the Olive have won and they now have the right and duty to govern Italy. Just as in any democracy, we'll now form the opposition, a serious and correct opposition that neither seeks nor accepts favours."
The PDS has emerged as the strongest party in the land, with 21.1 per cent of the vote just half a percentage point ahead of Forza Italia (20.6 per cent), with AN third (15.7 per cent). One of the relative surprises was the strong showing of two parties, the federalist Northern League and, the hard left Rifondazione Communista, which opted to run outside either coalition. The Northern League emerged as the fourth strongest party with 10.1 per cent while Ritondazione was next with 8.6 per cent.
Opinion polls had consistently indicated a close result and so it proved. For although the centre left were the undoubted winners picking up an overall 43.3 per cent, Prof Prodi will have to rely on the support of Rifondazione Communista in the Chamber of Deputies, Italy's lower house.
Given the identical legislative functions of both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, a majority is necessary in both houses to ensure effective government 158 seats in the Senate and 316 in the Chamber represent the minimum, absolute majority figures. The Olive coalition should have no problems in the Senate, where it has 157 seats and where it can count on the support some of the 11 non elected lite senators. Prof Piodi's problems, however, will come in the Chamber where the Olive has 284 seats and must therefore rely on the support of the 35 seats held by Rifondazione.
Inevitably much of yesterday's immediate analysis of the vote concentrated on precisely what sort of agreement the Olive coalition may make with Rifondazione. For the purposes of the election, Ritondazione established a resistance pact with the Olive with both parties avoiding confrontation in the 779 single seat Senate and Chamber constituencies.
Although this tactic was an essential part of the left's winning strategy, it was at no time envisaged that Ritondazione would form part of any subsequent Olive government a point reaffirmed yesterday by both parties.
Asked about the Ritondazione issue yesterday Prof Prodi said.
We have the numbers to govern and we will govern, we will go ahead with our government programme we cannot change it and we have no intention of changing it.
The centre left victory was also welcomed yesterday by Italy's EU partners, aware that Italy's fledgling Euro sceptical movement is situated on the right while an eventual Piodi government is certain to confirm Italy's commitment to European integration.