Calculating Kerry to prove point

Kerry v Tyrone, Croke Park 3.30: Today sees the climax of a memorable football season. The Bank of Ireland All-Ireland football final brings together two of the game's three great sides after a championship in which the pre-season rankings held remarkably firm.  than Armagh over the three matches between the teams.

That it has fallen to Tyrone to challenge champions Kerry is appropriate in that they proved themselves a better side

The denials in Kerry concerning the enhanced significance of the match are reminiscent of the Cork hurlers' stated indifference to hurling's roll of honour before last year's final with Kilkenny: something that might be wise to play down before the match but will bring a warm glow should they succeed.

Two years ago Kerry were in poor form and incapable of responding mentally when the pressure came on. They had got a hint of Tyrone's game in a National League match earlier in the year and were no better able to deal with it despite the notice.

Tyrone were, conversely, on top of their game and it was probably only the early injury to Peter Canavan that prevented Kerry being routed.

The impact of Jack O'Connor's management is plain to see in that despite having more of their 2003 side on display than Tyrone the champions are such hot favourites. No football manager in recent times has got so far into his second championship unbeaten.

There are, however, wise people who are sceptical about Kerry and argue that during O'Connor's management the team hasn't been seriously tested in the championship. The view perhaps does an injustice to Limerick, who so nearly won last year's Munster title in both the drawn match and the replay, but it reflects the fact neither Tyrone nor Armagh were in a position to challenge Kerry last season.

This isn't Kerry's fault but it leaves open the suggestion that when faced with the intensity, resilience and adaptability of Tyrone they will be unable to cope. That argument, however plausible, isn't ultimately convincing.

Firstly the trend last year, and being repeated now, sees Kerry picking up momentum as the summer fades and turns into autumn. Again this championship, O'Connor's team have kicked on viciously at the All-Ireland semi-final stage.

Trainer Pat Flanagan has said it would be impossible to time a team's preparations as finely as that and you can only train for the next match, but the logic of the championship format is that any team can have a non-fatal slip early in the summer.

Flanagan also said no trainer can be certain his team will go as well as he hopes on any given day, but so far Kerry's calculations have been well vindicated.

In training sessions they have been playing 18 against the first team and prioritising swift transfer to counter the swarm defence that suffocated them two years ago. Furthermore, the work rate of Paul Galvin and Liam Hassett parallels that of Brian Dooher and Brian McGuigan.

It is, of course, fair to point to three titanic struggles with Armagh as being superior preparation to two with Cork and one with Mayo, but tomorrow will tell a tale about the advantages of having momentum and being battle-hardened.

The belief here is that Kerry can more than match Tyrone's strengths. The champions' defence is fast, versatile and hard. It lives on the edge to a greater extent than any other apart from Armagh's.

Against a formidable full-forward line this gives options. Four of the Kerry defenders are superb man-markers whereas Séamus Moynihan, likely to be on the wing, and Tomás Ó Sé are strong and dynamic on the ball.

Restraining Canavan, Stephen O'Neill and the resurgent Owen Mulligan is nonetheless a massive task but not impossible, particularly in the light of the fact O'Neill's form has receded a little from its season's high and Mulligan's tour de force in the semi-final was partly facilitated by the puzzling decision to leave Francie Bellew marking him for too long.

Tyrone also have question marks over their full-back line and centrefield. Joe McMahon has been solid at full back and may even pick up Dara Ó Cinnéide in the corner but would be more comfortable farther out, whereas Ryan McMenamin, although this year's leading corner back, has a dynamism the team sometimes needs in the half backs.

In the middle both Seán Cavanagh and Enda McGinley are happier in the half forwards and the evidence to date is that the latter makes more impact as an auxiliary midfielder than as a starter. This represents a real opportunity for Kerry if Darragh Ó Sé can hit on one of his purple patches as a fielder and remembering that William Kirby was man of the match in last year's final.

A sustained period of feeding the forwards will set Kerry on their way. Colm Cooper is the outstanding threat, despite reasonable reservations about over-reliance. Yet Kerry have excelled at creating space for their star forward and at training have been playing two defenders on him to sharpen his already impressive ability to make room for himself.

Kerry aren't going to hit the jackpot in all of these confrontations but can swing enough of them to become the first team in 15 years to retain the Sam Maguire Cup.