SUCCESSION:Attention has switched swiftly to succession, with indications that Bertie Ahern's replacement will be determined in a matter of days.
FOR DECADES, Bertie Ahern has kept his own counsel, rarely telling others more than they needed to know and any earlier than they needed to know it. He maintained such habits until the end.
Mr Ahern began to give notice that a departure speech - one that emerged yesterday as a well-crafted and deeply personal review of his time at the helm - was in the offing from early Saturday morning, or so.
However, the circle of those "in the know" was kept tight: even Minister for Finance Brian Cowen, the man most likely to succeed, was not called until Tuesday night.
Others in the party were not told also: Minister for Justice Brian Lenihan had a sleepless night with a sick child before his arrival into Government Buildings for breakfast with Fianna Fáil Ministers before the Cabinet meeting.
"Everyone was shell-shocked. Nobody, bar Cowen, knew. It was quite emotional.
"He was quite emotional, as the public were able to see for themselves later on television," said one of those who attended the meeting.
However, plans had been laid to deal with the need to take, and keep control of the media agenda, as Ministers slotted into "a media interview grid" that had been prepared earlier by the Government press office.
So was he pushed or did he jump? Ahern had met with Cowen in his St Luke's constituency office on Thursday, on foot of the latter's return from St Patrick's Day duties in Malaysia and a short family holiday in Vietnam.
Such a meeting would not be unusual, although this did not prevent rumours spreading that Cowen had made it clear that Ahern's continuation as Taoiseach had become impossible in the wake of the latest Mahon tribunal revelations.
However, there is no evidence that any such thing happened, and there is considerable evidence that it did not - particularly as Cowen spent much of the later part of that day at the deathbed of his father's brother, Fr Andrew (Vincent) Cowen.
Equally, however, there is no doubt but that Brian Cowen picked up in the days afterwards the distress signals emanating from Fianna Fáil about the Carruth evidence.
Indeed, those signals had first started to be raised after it emerged that Celia Larkin had been given £30,000 to buy a house out of Fianna Fáil Dublin Central funds.
That revelation started the clock on his departure.
Yesterday, there were many - not Ministers, or those immediately around them, it must be added - who were not slow to argue that Ahern had acted in the way that he did because Ministers told him the game was up.
Undoubtedly, Ministers had been deeply concerned by the Larkin development and by the impact of the altered evidence of Ahern's former secretary, Gráinne Carruth, who retracted her earlier testimony that she had never lodged sterling for him.
Her discomfort in Dublin Castle made Fianna Fáil TDs squirm, and more than a few Ministers realised that a tipping point had been passed, and there is no doubt but that feeling had reached higher orders within the party in the days after.
But there is a difference between that concern rising through the ranks as it did, and a posse of Ministers, singly or together, arriving outside his door to tell him to go, or face being removed from office.
For such did not happen. Bertie Ahern did not endure "a whiskey and revolver" moment from his colleagues. However, he can read politics and politicians better than most.
Certainly, by late Friday, he had determined that he wanted to control as many of the elements of his departure as possible, and that maintaining that control required an early leaving of office rather than later.
On Monday, he signalled his intentions at a meeting of his local Fianna Fáil organisation, according to his brother Maurice, who said the Taoiseach thanked those present for all their work and apologised that some of them were being "dragged" before the Mahon tribunal.
Ahern acted in the clear knowledge that Fianna Fáil's unity could be pushed to breaking point, particularly with another bad day to come at the tribunal on May 20th, and possibly more afterwards.
This way, he held the element of surprise, and managed to impose his version of history on his final day, thus securing some dignity from departing an office that has always been difficult to leave for any its occupants over the years.
Within hours the attention, in the cruel way of politics, had already begun to turn to the arrangements needed to replace Ahern, and to those who might benefit, or lose out from his decision.
Back in 1994, Fianna Fáil did its business quickly after Albert Reynolds fell, leaving just two days between his departure and Ahern's election.
This time around, the gap will be longer, but not by much. Moreover, Ahern will have been replaced as leader of Fianna Fáil well before he stands up in the Dáil to announce his resignation.
In his speech he named Tuesday May 6th as his day of departure, though the Dáil will not be in session on that day because it comes in the wake of a Bank Holiday. Instead, it will sit on May 7th.
Today, the executive of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party: Ahern, chairman of the parliamentary party Brian Cowen and Séamus Kirk, will meet to lay out a timetable for the succession.
Just 77 TDs will be able to vote, minus John O'Donoghue who now serves as Ceann Comhairle. Fianna Fáil MEPs and senators are not allowed a vote, unlike what happens in some other parties.
Nominations could open as early as Monday, and a vote could be held as early as Wednesday, or Thursday next, particularly if the field of candidates is small, or limited to just one.
So far, Cowen does not face competition. Indeed, his election is guaranteed, so the question is whether anyone else believes their position can be improved by contesting an election they cannot win.
In truth, Cowen would prefer a contest, if only to have the legitimacy of an election victory. Equally, however, other possible candidates must run in the certain knowledge that they will do well to get a dozen votes, if even that.
With the exception of Brian Lenihan, who has ruled himself out, other Ministers are keeping their powder dry, if only because they need to see what others might do rather than because they seriously think they have a chance.
Once in place, Cowen will have to choose his new cabinet - which will require some changes, but not on the scale of Albert Reynolds's "Night of The Long Knives" when he replaced Charles Haughey.
Much attention will focus on who will become Tánaiste, even if the role is more often powerless than powerful.
Perhaps it could be Brian Lenihan, on account of his reputed talent and the fact that he is Dublin-based.
So, too, will attention turn to who will be minister for finance.
Lenihan is perhaps unlikely to move there, so Dermot Ahern and Micheál Martin will have designs on occupying Cowen's former place in cabinet.