Budget provides bounce for FF and PDs as support for SF proves solid

Last October's Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll produced the Government's highest level of satisfaction since before the May 2002 election…

Last October's Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll produced the Government's highest level of satisfaction since before the May 2002 election, with a corresponding uplift in both the Taoiseach's and Tánaiste's personal satisfaction ratings.

Enda Kenny achieved the highest score of any Fine Gael leader in over five years, while Pat Rabbitte equalled his own highest rating since assuming the mantle of the leadership of the Labour Party.

Meanwhile, the position of the leader of Sinn Féin, Gerry Adams, had improved by eight points as talks began with the DUP regarding the potential restoration of devolved government in the North.

That last poll was taken within the context of the Government's attempts to reposition itself as a more caring proposition, and Fine Gael and Labour's presentation as potential coalition partners by way of the Mullingar Accord.

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It was noted at the time that although these initiatives had had an immediate positive impact on the satisfaction ratings of both the Government and the main party leaders, none of the party support levels had improved to any significant degree.

Since October, key political developments have included a Cabinet reshuffle, the Government's unveiling of the 2005 Budget measures and, more recently, the sidelining of Sinn Féin in the aftermath of the Northern Bank robbery.

Elements of the Budget which generated most discussion and media coverage included the abolition of stamp duty for first-time buyers on second-hand properties up to the value of €317,500, increases in old age and other related pensions by up to €12 per week, and the introduction of a four-year investment programme for key disability support services.

Today's poll suggests that the Government, as well as its constituent Coalition partners of Fianna Fáil and the PDs, have benefited greatly from this Budget, and indeed from all of its recent re-positioning efforts.

As is evident from Table II, the general trend over the last three months has been towards the Fianna Fáil party, but with none of the other parties losing out in particular.

It is difficult to know how these poll findings will influence the Government's long-term strategic thinking, if at all.

Although Fianna Fáil will derive some solace from its performance in advance of the Meath and Kildare North by-elections, it is still far too early for Bertie Ahern to make any concrete decisions as to when the next general election should be called.

While support levels are currently moving in the Government's direction, it is worth noting that combined Fianna Fáil/PD support is still four points below the share of vote the partners actually achieved at the 2002 elections.

Both Fine Gael's support and levels of satisfaction with its leader remain solid from poll to poll.

Mr Kenny's personal rating of 44 per cent represents a significant uplift from the average rating of 30 per cent he achieved in the year prior to last October, and it is worth noting here that just under a third of the electorate have yet to form an opinion of Enda Kenny as leader of Fine Gael, with only one in four actually dissatisfied with his performance.

In seeking to improve the standing of both Fine Gael and its leader over the coming months, the party will no doubt take note of the fact that its support has slipped slightly among urban voters, while Fianna Fáil has improved significantly in those same urban areas.

The poll results for Pat Rabbitte and the Labour Party are almost indistinguishable from those recorded in the last survey in the series.

As such, Labour is still vying with Fine Gael and Sinn Féin for second place in Dublin behind Fianna Fáil, and draws two-thirds of its support from urban areas all around the country.

There is also some evidence from this poll to suggest that Labour is under-performing in comparison with its competitors among voters aged 18 to 24 years, one of the constituencies, it could be argued, that should represent a natural heartland for a left-of-centre party.

The Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll carried out just before the 2002 general election positioned Sinn Féin at 7 per cent support nationwide, precisely the share of vote it garnered on election day.

At that stage, the party's support was clearly skewed towards younger voters, males, those in Dublin and Connacht/Ulster, and the lower socio-economic groupings.

Since that election, support for the party grew steadily to the 12 per cent registered in last October's survey.

Of particular note, however, was the degree to which Sinn Féin's appeal had spread over the same period to encompass sizeable proportions of all voters up to 50 years of age or so, and across all regions, including Leinster and Munster.

Indeed, as of three months ago, one in 10 of all voters falling into the mid-to-higher social classes identified themselves as likely to vote for Sinn Féin.

It was clear that the party was beginning to stretch its franchise beyond that of the stereotypical young, urban, working-class male, and was becoming firmly established in the minds of a broader cross-section of the electorate as a credible constitutional party.

The fact that this growth in party support continued unabated throughout such episodes as the Colombia Three arrests and subsequent trials, the Stormont bugging scandal and the discovery of the bodies of the "Disappeareds" also suggested a certain imperviousness amongst its core voters to its historical links to paramilitarism.

Today's poll only serves to strengthen the notion that the "new" Sinn Féin voter is unlikely to judge the party on the basis of the perceived actions of the IRA.

Thus, despite the stated belief of both the Irish and British governments that the Northern Bank robbery was the work of the IRA, Sinn Féin's potential vote in the Republic remains virtually unchanged.

While Mr Adams's personal rating has dropped nine points, it is evident from Table I that his satisfaction rating has fluctuated from the low forties to the low fifties over the last number of years, while his party's support has edged upwards over the same period.

The implication is that Sinn Féin is more likely than not to increase its representation in the Dáil following the next election.

In this regard, the degree to which the party's candidate in the Meath by-election increases his share of the first-preference vote over the May 2002 general election could be a useful early indicator.

And finally, a technical note on the adjustment factor applied to party support figures.

For the last number of years the party support levels registered on the Irish Times/TNS mrbi polls have been statistically adjusted to allow for the historical overstatement of support for Fianna Fáil.

The adjustment factors used have remained consistent since before the last general election, and have proven remarkably accurate in identifying likely levels of support for the various parties, particularly Fianna Fáil.

National polls conducted prior to last June's local elections did, however, tend to overstate support for the Labour Party, and correspondingly understate support for Fine Gael.

With this in mind, an analysis of the adjustment factor applied to the latter two parties' support levels is currently being conducted.

Depending on the results of this analysis, the adjustment factors may be amended marginally for the next poll conducted. Readers of The Irish Times will accordingly be informed if and when this occurs.