Both sides claim departure will bolster their campaign

LISBON TREATY CAMPAIGN:CAMPAIGNERS ON both sides of the Lisbon Treaty campaign believe the departure of Taoiseach Bertie Ahern will bolster their campaigns or have no effect on the outcome of the referendum in June.

Ibec's director of EU and international affairs, Brendan Butler, said that the public was unlikely to be influenced one way or another.

"I believe the impact will be minimal. I genuinely believe that the Irish electorate tend to jump above domestic politics when it comes to these matters."

The Government had been polling well at times when previous treaty referendums were defeated, he said.

"A lot of times people equate the popularity of the Taoiseach and the Government with the economy. Nice 1 coincided with a bounce for the Government, but was defeated. Nice 2 was greeted by the burst of the dotcom bubble, when the Government was shaky, yet it was passed."

However, he said that if Mr Ahern's departure was to have any effect, it would be a boost. "The No campaign had personalised the treaty - now they will have to focus on the issues."

John McGurk, of the anti-treaty group Libertas, said that the Dáil parties who were in favour of the treaty would be distracted by the changes in leadership. "The Government and Opposition will have their eye off the ball and we will use this opportunity to campaign very vigorously for a No vote."

The lack of a convincing argument from Fine Gael and Labour in favour of the treaty would now be exposed, he said.

"The Taoiseach's unpopularity was less of a factor than people thought. What will Labour and Fine Gael do for the next month, when the only thing they were saying to people was to hold fire on Bertie until after the treaty? This will force them to talk about the issues."

However, Fine Gael's European affairs spokeswoman, Lucinda Creighton, said that the departure of Mr Ahern would give a "big bounce" to the Yes campaign.

"It will encourage hard-core Bertie supporters to give him a good send-off and it will also dispel the fears of a huge number of Fine Gael supporters who did not want to be seen to be endorsing Bertie Ahern."

However, she was concerned that the leadership race and the changes in the Government front bench would prove a distraction from the referendum.

Sinn Féin MEP Mary Lou McDonald said Mr Ahern stepping down would make little difference.

"People will judge the treaty on its merits. They want debate on the substance of the treaty. Some people said the specific travails of the Taoiseach would have a huge impact. I never bought that."