Both coalition options may fall just short

Constituency profiles: Neither of the coalition options on offer to the electorate will achieve a majority, the collective wisdom…

Constituency profiles:Neither of the coalition options on offer to the electorate will achieve a majority, the collective wisdom of Irish Timesconstituency profilers suggests.

A Labour/Fianna Fáil coalition, on the other hand, could be in a position to put together a five-seat overall majority.

Aggregating the predictions by the paper's reporters in each of their 43 "constituency profiles" gives a Fianna Fáil/PD coalition 70 seats and a Fine Gael/Labour/Green Party combination 79 seats - still four short of the 83 seats needed for a majority (if an opposition TD becomes Ceann Comhairle).

Labour and Fianna Fáil, however, will be able to muster a comfortable 88 seats if our expert thumb-suckers prove correct.

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The estimates, made at various stages in a roller-coaster campaign, would put Fianna Fáil at 67 seats, down from 79 in the current Dáil, with the PDs and Independents also having dramatic falls in support - the PDs at three (from eight) and the Independents at eight (from 14).

Fine Gael is predicted to do well, boosting its number of seats to 47 from 32, while Labour just about holds its own on 22 (up one). The Greens and Sinn Féin each gain four, to 10 and nine, respectively.

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth is former Europe editor of The Irish Times