Blair, Trimble remain hopeful of deal with SF

The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, and the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader, Mr David Trimble, are still hopeful they…

The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, and the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader, Mr David Trimble, are still hopeful they can conclude an "acts of completion" deal with Sinn Féin before the expected confirmation of November elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly.

That was the insistent message last night as a Downing Street spokesman maintained "no final decisions" had been made. He refused to say whether Mr Blair would confirm a November 13th election date following his summit talks with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, in Downing Street this morning.

Earlier confident predictions that the announcement would come today gave way to some uncertainty following apparent progress in Saturday's talks between Mr Trimble and the Sinn Féin president, Mr Gerry Adams.

And as the Ulster Unionist/Sinn Féin dialogue continued through yesterday, some officials suggested that Mr Blair and Mr Ahern might be persuaded to give it a little more time.

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However, the potential for a major falling-out between Mr Blair and Mr Trimble was dramatically underlined when Mr Trimble warned that elections should not go ahead without a prior political agreement.

"Without solving the problem that led to suspension [of the Assembly\], then elections in a vacuum would probably make matters worse," he told the BBC's Politics show.

The Irish Times understands that the Ulster Unionist leadership believes that this also remains Mr Blair's position, and that the prime minister will not reverse his decision of last April and call elections without a further significant movement by republicans in terms of the cessation of the IRA as a paramilitary force.

However, that unionist confidence sits uncomfortably alongside the near certainty of all the other parties and, crucially, the Irish Government that an election will take place with or without a political agreement and that the decision now to be taken by Mr Blair is "when" rather than "whether".

It is not denied that that expectation has been fuelled in recent days by briefings from within the British system, and some Whitehall sources acknowledge that a refusal to hold the poll now would provoke an even more furious reaction throughout nationalist Ireland than Mr Blair's original decision to postpone the election back in April.

Pressed about Mr Trimble's understanding of Mr Blair's position, the Downing Street spokesman said he did not think the UUP leader, or anybody else, was "going to be surprised" when the prime minister finally made his decision known.

However, still holding out hope that the unionists and Sinn Féin would reach agreement, the spokesman insisted: "I don't think we're at the point where we have to make a choice."

There are conflicting assessments within Whitehall as to how much real progress was made on Saturday, and a senior Sinn Féin source - while noticeably more reticent than on Friday - said yesterday that he still thought it likely that the election would proceed without an agreement.

Against that, Mr Trimble is understood to have told colleagues he believes Mr Adams "has another move to make" and is anxious to resolve the outstanding issues so that the election can proceed in a positive atmosphere with a UUP commitment to resume a power-sharing government thereafter.

It would appear that the atmospherics between the two sides have improved in part because of a UUP willingness to consider a process pointing to the devolution of policing and justice powers by the mid-way point in the next Assembly.

However, one sceptical official source last night doubted if Mr Trimble could ultimately play that "ace card" because he, in turn, would almost certainly require more, not less, than Sinn Féin is prepared to offer.