Benelux elections overshadow European Parliament campaigns

General elections, or the prospect of them, appear to have completely submerged lacklustre European Parliament campaigns in Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

Indeed, in Belgium voters face the daunting prospect on the one day of elections to four assemblies - the lower and upper houses of parliament (the House of Representatives and the Senate, respectively), one of the four regional assemblies (Flanders, Wallonia, Brussels, and the small German community), and the European Parliament.

Not voting is a crime, punishable and indeed punished - little wonder that only 905 of 18,400 non-Belgian EU citizens in one region have registered to vote in the European elections.

With a broad pro-EU consensus across the main parties, national issues are the main battleground. The dominant factors are linguistic tensions and linguistically-divided parties, and the possibility that the growth of the opposition Liberals may provide alternative coalition choices to the current government of two Socialist and two Christian Democrat parties.

We could end up with a lay Liberal-Socialist government, or even an "asymmetrical" government composed of different parties in each half of the country.

There are some fears that a surge in the vote of the Vlaams Blok in Brussels, where it has been trying to recruit Francophone supporters, could make the city ungovernable because the constitution requires a minimum level of Flemish representation.

In Luxembourg, the national elections appear likely to return the 15-year coalition between Christian Democrats and Socialists, both of whom share two seats in the European Parliament.

The other two are held by a Liberal and a Green and the latter, observers say, is the most vulnerable seat. It could go to either of the two leading parties.

The Christian Democrats hope to benefit from the view that the treatment of their former prime minister and President of the Commission, Mr Jacques Santer, was an unfair scapegoating and an affront to the duchy.

Mr Santer tops their list, assuring him of a seat, although he is not campaigning and will leave his Brussels post only in mid-July.

The consensual and deeply Europhile nature of Luxembourg politics means there is little to separate the parties, although the Socialists put more emphasis on employment than do their rivals. Compulsory voting means turnout will not be a problem.

In the Netherlands, the collapse of the government and the prospects for cobbling the same coalition together again have dominated the headlines. If the Socialists and Liberals, who have governed together since 1994, cannot patch up an agreement, a general election in the autumn is likely. This is a prospect they will view with dread.

Provincial elections in May showed a significant erosion of their base. Translated to the European elections, the results suggested at least two seats fewer for the Socialists and similar losses for the two Liberal parties, with the Greens likely to gain.