At least half of electorate are occasional floating voters, TCD study reveals

AT LEAST half of the electorate would appear to be floating voters on some occasions, according to an academic from Trinity College Dublin.

Prof Michael Marsh, professor of comparative political behaviour, yesterday launched The Irish National Election Study, which tracked more than 1,000 voters from 2002 until 2007.

He found just 63 per cent of those who voted in the general elections in 2002 and 2007 opted for the same parties both times.

“That’s only looking at people who voted on both occasions. At least half the electorate, maybe more, would appear to float on some occasions.”

Prof Marsh said the notion of floating voters accounting for a small portion of the electorate would appear to be misplaced.

When participants were asked in 2007 if they regularly used The Irish Timesfor political information, 20.3 per cent answered yes. Fourteen per cent of Fianna Fáil voters said yes, as did 14.5 per cent of Sinn Féin voters; 20.3 per cent of Fine Gael voters; 30.7 per cent of Labour voters; 31.7 per cent of Progressive Democrats voters and 42.8 per cent of Green voters.

Participants were asked if they saw information about political parties and candidates on the internet. In 2002, 5.4 per cent answered yes. By 2007, this amount had risen to 11.2 per cent.

Another question was: “When did you decide which party to give your first preference vote to in the general election?” In 2007, 54.3 per cent said they decided before the election campaign, while 3.4 per cent said on election day.

When asked when they decided which candidate to give their first-preference vote to in the 2007 general election, 46.8 per cent said before the election campaign. Just 5.3 per cent said they decided on election day.

Voters were asked if their first-preference candidate had been running for any other party would that candidate still receive their first-preference vote.

In 2007, 31.6 per cent said yes, 36 per cent said no and 9.9 per cent said it depended on the other party.

Participants were asked how often, if ever, they had spoken to their 2007 first-preference candidate. “Often” was the response of 16.5 per cent, 20.9 per cent said “occasionally”. 18.3 per cent said “once or twice” and 22.5 per cent said “never”.

The study also covered the local and European Parliament elections of 2004. Prof Marsh said voter behaviour at one general election was a much stronger pointer to behaviour at the next election than either mid-term behaviour in 2004 or voting intentions in inter-election polls.

“Those who support parties at mid-term elections certainly cannot be relied on to stay the course and those who desert may well return when it comes to a general election.”

The results of the study are available online www.tcd.ie/ines.