ANALYSIS:WITH REBEL forces advancing from east and west on the Libyan capital and Nato hammering what remains of his army from the air, the days of leader Muammar Gadafy appear numbered.
It is clear in hindsight, if not at the time, that the fatal damage to his regime was done in the preceding months by the constant pounding from the jets of the western alliance, rather than any action by rebel forces.
Months of relentless bombing, with an average of 50 strike missions a day, has slowly whittled Gadafy’s forces down to the point where they cannot form a coherent front line.
To be in Misrata these past months is to have had a ringside seat, through observing the flashes and concussions of the air strikes, on a bombing campaign that has been both decisive and controversial – decisive because it has put the rebels in the position where even their lightly armed untrained militias are now sweeping the board; controversial because to critics, Nato has overstepped the mandate conferred in March by the United Nations to conduct operations to protect civilians.
It is a stretch to claim that these bombing missions are anything more than combat air support by another name.
Libya’s rebels are now confident that they can effect a link-up within days between units from Misrata and Zawiya, cutting off Tripoli from the rest of Libya, and Gadafy’s all-important oil depots.
It may not even take that long, with uprisings continuing to boil in the capital and a stream of high-profile defections taking the wind out of the regime.
Now, the man who took power through a coup against Libya’s former monarch in 1969 is facing almost certain defeat, the only question being how he goes out.
Holding fast in Tripoli will prolong the fight, but with Nato continuing to hammer his forces from the air, rebel forces will defeat him either from outside the city or through internal revolt.
Escape may be his most attractive option, and many rebels think he has already fled the capital, and possibly the country, evidenced by his current speeches broadcast on state television having come via a telephone link.
Yet exile is likely to offer him little comfort. With the International Criminal Court having issued a warrant against him for crimes against humanity, few states will risk international opprobrium by giving him refuge.
Throughout the war, state television has featured regular broadcasts from fortune tellers who predicted, among other things, that Libya’s chickens would begin laying green eggs – the colour of Gadafy’s flag – in his honour.
Their failure to predict his coming end may be something Gadafy is now contemplating in what seems likely to be his final days at the helm.