While surveys of public opinion about the presidential campaign may throw up widely conflicting messages from the voters, the hard-nosed futures market in the United States is pointing forcefully towards a victory for the Republican party's contender, Governor George W. Bush.
The predictions are based on how speculators assess Mr Bush and his Democratic rival, Vice-President Al Gore, and they show that, when the betting is on, a Bush victory is where the smart money goes.
The University of Iowa has run a "winner-takes-all" futures market for every presidential election since 1988, and its predictions have been right every time. Under the system, speculators assess the two candidates as though they were commodities and invest in one of them.
Last week the value of the Gore contract was 51.6 cents, but at the start of this week it had slipped to 37.5 cents. Mr Bush, who had been trailing in the preceding weeks, is now seen as a suitable investment, with a value to his contract that has jumped from 48 cents to 62 cents.
This effectively means that speculators believe that he has a better than 62 per cent chance of victory in the November 7th election and are putting their money behind it.
The system is seen as giving a better picture of the chances of the two candidates, as people stand to lose money if they are wrong. People giving opinions to pollsters on the other hand are notoriously fickle and also have very distorted views of whether they will turn up to vote.
This week's valuations show a big shift from the golden days of the Gore campaign. After the Democrats' convention in Los Angeles in August his speech and the smacking kiss he gave his wife made him worth 71 cents.
But as his campaign has stumbled and Mr Gore has failed to get in a knock-out blow in any of the three presidential debates, so has his valuation tumbled.
Speculators can also bet on the popular vote, and here they still agree that the final voting will be very tight. Mr Bush is valued here at 49.7 to Mr Gore's 48.6 cents.
In traditional surveys, the Green party's candidate, Mr Ralph Nader, who is causing concern to Mr Gore with his support in key western states, is polling between 3 per cent and 5 per cent. Averaged out, the latest polls effectively indicate a dead heat.