The number of asylum applications in Ireland this year is expected to be down by at least 40 per cent on last year's total of 7,900.
The falling numbers reflect a trend in Europe during the first nine months of 2004 which saw a 22 per cent drop in asylum applications lodged compared to the same period last year.
Refugee support groups say increased policing of ports and airports, along with changes to residency rights for parents of Irish-born child and the citizenship referendum, may have impacted on the fall in Ireland.
Significant reductions in the number of new asylum claims were reported by Norway and Greece (- 49 per cent), the Czech Republic and Ireland (- 46 per cent), Romania (- 42 per cent), and Hungary and the UK (- 36 per cent) over the first nine months of this year.
In contrast, asylum claims during January to September 2004 increased significantly in Cyprus (49 per cent), Luxembourg (26 per cent), Malta (49 per cent) and Slovakia (46 per cent).
Mr Peter O'Mahony, of the Irish Refugee Council, said comparative figures for July to September of this year show Slovakia and Cyprus received twice as many new asylum applications as Ireland in the same period.
"There has been a very dramatic shift towards some Eastern European countries, which isn't any great surprise. These countries may not have the same deterrent systems in place that we have, while asylum-seekers are also more likely to be transiting across a range of countries which brings them to Eastern Europe."
He said a factor behind falling numbers arriving in Ireland was that access to Britain was more difficult due to increased policing of ports and airports between Ireland and the UK.
"In 2002 up to 50 per cent of asylum-seekers were dropping out of the asylum system. The vast majority went to UK, and Irish authorities were happy for this to happen. That changed dramatically over the last two years, when policing became equally heavy on the UK side."
He expressed concern at the high numbers refused leave to land in Ireland. Recent Irish legislation meant that airlines could stop people from boarding in the country of origin if their documentation was incomplete.
The Irish Refugee Council has called for the publication of a human rights audit of the Garda, undertaken by UK-based Ionann Management consultancy in 2003. Mr O'Mahony said the report was due to be published this year.