The disaster that befell Fianna Fail in 1991, when it lost control of 13 county councils in the local elections, went a long way towards writing finis to the political career of Charlie Haughey. Within a year, Albert Reynolds was installed as party leader and taoiseach.
With such a cautionary tale to hand, Bertie Ahern is taking no chances with the party's foot soldiers. And so, for the past two years, the Minister for the Environment, Noel Dempsey, has engaged in a programme of local government reform and rejuvenation.
In an effort to get fresh blood into the system and to establish a Fianna Fail cadre from which future Dail candidates could be drawn, golden handshakes were introduced as an inducement for long-serving councillors to retire. About 80 per cent of all serving councillors applied, but this figure may have dropped back towards 40 per cent when nominations closed.
Fianna Fail was determined to build on patterns that showed that the party which made ground in local elections invariably gained seats in subsequent Dail contests. And, if the gains at county council level were sufficiently great, might not an overall Dail majority be within reach?
Such bright hopes have become tarnished in recent months. The findings of the various tribunals, the ramifications of the Sheedy case and disclosures concerning the private life and financial affairs of Mr Haughey have all conspired to bewilder party supporters and alienate floating voters. But party officers still talk of making "substantial gains" on June 11th.
The last county council and county borough elections were in 1991. Before that, they were held in 1985. Gaps of eight and six years between elections represented not only a contempt for local democracy but a fear of change by different governments.
Fianna Fail made huge gains in 1985 when it took 46.7 per cent of the vote and secured majorities on 18 of the State's 30 county councils. It controlled another four or five councils with the help of independents.
But the tide went out in 1991 when, following the establishment of the Progressive Democrats and the growth of the Green Party, its vote dropped by seven points and it secured a majority on only five county councils.
Those county council elections also provided intimations of things to come. The Labour Party won 32 extra seats and positioned itself for a great leap forward in the subsequent general election. By contrast, Fianna Fail lost 80 seats; Fine Gael dropped 13 and the Green Party gained 13. The Progressive Democrats won 37 seats in their own right.
This time out, the Progressive Democrats are keeping clear blue water between themselves and Fianna Fail. In one of her first public statements on the elections, Mary Harney ruled out any voting transfer arrangement.
If their partners in government are giving them the cold shoulder, what are other people to think?
Apart from some concern over planning matters in Dublin, Fianna Fail reports no obvious antagonism on the doorsteps. The economy is powering ahead and satisfaction with the Coalition Government exceeds 50 per cent. Dublin issues, senior politicians say, revolve around traffic problems, house prices and childminding facilities. Otherwise, there is a general air of contentment.
But Fine Gael believes that many disillusioned and angry voters are waiting in the long grass for Fianna Fail; just as they did for Labour in the last general election. And John Bruton is determined to gain from the fall-out.
To maximise any gains, Mr Bruton has encouraged his front-bench Dail members to stand in the local elections, even though such a "dual mandate" will be banned from the year 2004.
A similar approach has been adopted by Ruairi Quinn, and prominent Labour TDs will be offering their services on local councils. During the campaign they have identified the health services as a major issue.
Competition between the two main opposition parties is intense as they vie for control of the major cities. In 1991 the five borough councils of Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford gave Fianna Fail 29.9 per cent of the vote; Fine Gael took 15.9 per cent; Labour got 14.5 per cent; the Progressive Democrats took 6.7 per cent; the Workers Party won 9.4 per cent and Others, including the Green Party and Sinn Fein, secured 23.6 per cent.
The merger of the Labour Party with Democratic Left should give the new party an edge over Fine Gael in the cities, but John Bruton and his candidates will remain comfortably ahead in terms of county council seats.
The more urbanised and local the constituency, the more fragmented the party vote. And while county council voting patterns tend to reflect the strength of the major political parties at national level, once you get into borough and urban district councils and town commissioner territory, independent and single-issue candidates become important players.
The confidence, health and ambition of the various parties can be gauged by the number of people offering themselves for election.
In that regard, the number of Fianna Fail candidates for county and borough councils, at 608, is still falling from a high of 687 in 1985 and of 643 in 1991. The Progressive Democrats will put forward 70 contestants, compared to 125 in the last elections. Fine Gael has bounced back with an increase of 51 candidates on 1991. The Labour Party has added 95, but many of these are blow-ins from Democratic Left. The Green Party continues to grow and will field 78 candidates, compared to 57 in 1991. And Sinn Fein will have 67 contenders in the field, compared to 42 on the last occasion.
On the basis of those figures alone, it would seem Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats are on a hiding to nothing.