AN EARLY analysis of the prospective general election results suggests a hung Dail, with Independents and the Green Party holding the balance of power. The views of party activists, Dail deputies, observers and local opinion in each of the State's 41 constituencies indicate that the Government parties will finish virtually neck and neck numerically with Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats.
With an expected five week run up to polling day, the forecast is: Fianna Fail, 72 seats; Fine Gael 50; Labour 24; the PDs seven; DL six; Independents five; Greens two.
This would give the Rainbow coalition 80 seats with Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats holding 79 seats between them. But once the Ceann Comhairle, Mr Sean Treacy (Independent), is elected as expected, 83 seats are needed in the 166 seat Dail to form a government.
The balance of power would rest with five Independent TDs, including Mr Michael Lowry in North Tipperary, and two Green Party deputies. Mr Lowry has indicated that he would support John Bruton when the Dail sits to elect a Taoiseach so, in that sense, he is not a strictly non aligned Independent deputy. The Taoiseach can also take comfort from the expected reversal of Jim Mitchell's earlier decision to stand down in Dublin Central. If Mr Mitchell decides tomorrow to run again, he will almost certainly be elected and so deprive Fianna Fail of a hoped for gain.
The support of the other Independents - Mildred Fox (Wicklow), Tony Gregory (Dublin Central) and Joe Higgins (Dublin West) and the two Greens, Trevor Sargent (Dublin North) and Dan Boyle (Cork South Central) - would be critical to both sides if they hoped to form a government.
If there is failure to agree a new government, there would be another election. Alternatively, Fianna Fail and Labour could coalesce but that would have to be done in the absence of Dick Spring, given his ruling out a future alliance with Fianna Fail.
In this 27th Dail, Fianna Fail holds 68 seats; Fine Gael 47; Labour 32; the Progressive Democrats eight; Democratic Left six; there are four Independents and one Green TD. If today's prediction holds up, Fianna Fail would gain an extra four seats while Fine Gael would gain three. Labour, on the other hand, would lose eight seats, a forecast that tends to dovetail with the opinion polls. It is this collapse that would prevent the existing coalition's return to power.
The Progressive Democrats would lose one seat (Peadar Clohessy, the Limerick East TD who is retiring from national politics) and make no further gains. The position of Democratic Left would remains static while the Green Party should see its representation increase by one.