Albert falls over as FF turns giddy in a tailspin

Over Drapier's long political career dramatic events have taken place, many without forewarning

Over Drapier's long political career dramatic events have taken place, many without forewarning. But one of the most surprising happened this week with the defeat of Albert Reynolds by the Fianna Fail Parliamentary Party.

Fianna Fail, according to all reports, was in a tailspin, particularly after Dick Spring pulled Adi Roche "out of the hat". It was said at the time that those behind the Anyone But Albert Campaign in Fianna Fail had thrown in the towel.

Efforts to get Ray MacSharry, Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, Sile de Valera and, most recently, David Andrews all bit the dust, but Mary McAleese kept beavering away.

Rumours abounded the night before the contest that Michael O'Kennedy was pulling out and that more than likely Mary McAleese would withdraw at the very last minute. But neither came to pass.

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Indeed, Drapier heard it alleged that a dirty-tricks campaign had put out this story in an effort to destabilise the opposition to Albert, but it was not to be.

The decision by Fianna Fail was truly amazing. Here was a virtual unknown going into the lions' den and coming out with victory. Drapier would hardly know Mary McAleese if she passed him in the corridor, and the same is true for quite a lot of the Fianna Failers who voted for her.

There has been much speculation as to what influenced the vote for McAleese. While much emphasis is being laid on the dead hand of some of Bertie's handlers, Drapier is not altogether sure that this had a huge influence. Drapier thinks quite a number of factors, perhaps including the latter, influenced the Fianna Failers.

One thing always bears heavily on the minds of politicians and that is their political skin. Drapier thinks there was a large element of self-preservation involved.

Mary McAleese was the easy option in that if she contested the Presidency and lost there would be no huge loss of face, and particularly no by-election. But putting Michael O'Kennedy, or particularly Albert Reynolds, forward would involve a potential loss of the Presidency, with huge knock-on effects for both the Government and the party or, alternatively, a win in the Presidency and a consequent by-election.

Drapier hears that the word on the ground from ordinary Fianna Failers to their TDs was that Albert was not going down well. A lot of the grassroots around the country were apparently afraid of any rehashing of scandals.

Undoubtedly, Fianna Fail's opposition, and indeed large elements of the media, were sharpening their knives and raking the muck at the prospect of Albert in the race. With Mary McAleese there, all that will stop, with no residual effect on Fianna Fail.

Drapier got the feeling speaking to a lot of the younger Fianna Fail deputies and senators that they were conscious of the need not to go back down the road of scandals and political mistakes.

As Albert himself said when he became Taoiseach and sacked 16 colleagues, sentimentality doesn't have much place in politics. Albert always had the attitude that "it's just business", and so it was on Wednesday when 62 of his colleagues turned their backs on him.

The Fianna Failers obviously took a hard-headed decision. Drapier gets the impression that Fianna Fail is beginning to play the others at their own game.

FOR instance, while most people in Fianna Fail were surprised at Albert's defeat, the decision flummoxed the Labour insiders, who thought they had pulled off the coup of the year by taking on Adi Roche. Drapier heard that some of the Labour handlers were tongue-tied when they heard the news.

Drapier gets the impression that some of the Fianna Failers may have voted for Mary McAleese because they were acutely aware that the Opposition, particularly Fine Gael and Labour, were hoping that Albert would be the Fianna Fail candidate.

Whether or not Bertie had a hand in Albert's downfall, the fact is that Bertie's Ministers had a vested interest in ensuring that "the ship wasn't rocked".

Quite a few of the Ministers had been previously slashed by Albert but also quite a few of them had received promotion from him. Drapier gathers that, with some few exceptions, they voted in block against Albert for the same reason, self-preservation.

Albert was devastated. His family had turned up in anticipation of a victory, but it was not to be. The aftermath of his defeat was somewhat unseemly in that some of his supporters were lashing out, blaming anyone and everyone they could possibly think of. Drapier cannot visualise younger Fianna Failers being "terrorised" into voting against Albert.

On Monday, the county councils around the country started to fall like ninepins for Dana. While this may have surprised many of the general public, to some seasoned campaigners it is obvious there has been a sea change over the last number of years, and that the local councils have been champing at the bit to assert their independence.

They have been saying for years that they have little or no power. Here was their cast-iron opportunity to gain their 15 minutes of glory. There was no one more surprised than Dana herself.

Fine Gael got caught out badly in endeavouring to enforce the party whip to no avail.

Fianna Fail boxed clever in offering no advice to their councillors. Drapier got the feeling that some of the Fianna Failers were actually happy that Dana was in the race because it would "muddy the waters".

What scuppered Brian Lehihan was that he received the lower proportion of transfers from Austin Currie.

With a fourth contestant in the race, they apparently feel their candidate will gain preference votes they might not otherwise receive. Drapier is not so sure.

On the Fine Gael side, Mary Banotti was victorious, by all accounts, by a very small margin, apparently one vote. Drapier had felt that perhaps Avril Doyle might have shaded it because of her closer relationship with her Oireachtas colleagues. But then again it is often said that maybe it's a disadvantage to be too well known.

Drapier thinks Mary Banotti will do very well despite some despondency within the Fine Gael ranks, who yet again seem to be adopting the attitude (as they did in the previous presidential election) that it doesn't matter which candidate wins so long as it's not Fianna Fail's.

The expression "so near and yet so far" came to Drapier's mind when he heard of the bomb in Markethill on Tuesday. The governments were upbeat at the prospects of David Trimble and his colleagues entering face-to-face talks with Sinn Fein.

All of us in here were shocked and yet, in a way, not surprised. The statement by the IRA in An Phoblacht was obviously a shot across the bows of Gerry Adams and company by the hardliners. The bombers went one step farther.

People in here are keeping their fingers crossed that Trimble and Co will hold their nerve and follow on from the broad mandate which they received from their people.

If they do take their seats, it is then that the tough decisions, on both sides, will have to be taken. Drapier wishes them well.