SOUTH AFRICA:Aid agencies working in southern Africa are making contingency plans for a major humanitarian crisis arising from Zimbabwe's economic and political turmoil, writes Joe Humphreysin Pretoria.
The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) says about 12,000 people are being deported to Zimbabwe each month from South Africa, the destination of choice for the majority of those fleeing President Mugabe's regime.
Tens of thousands of other people are evading detection, taking up home in townships and informal settlements across Zimbabwe's southern border.
Nicola Simmonds, IOM spokeswoman in Harare, said it was hard to know whether emigration from Zimbabwe had increased in recent weeks "because people are leaving the country in a very irregular way".
"Deportations from South Africa had been running about 10,000 a month, but in the last six months they have increased to about 12,000 a month. Whether that is down to an increase in emigration, or an additional crackdown on migrants by the South African authorities, we really don't know," she said.
An estimated three million Zimabweans have fled to South Africa since 2000, when Mr Mugabe began his controversial land reforms that led to the expulsion of most of the country's white farmers. Zambia and Botswana have also seen an influx of refugees. Botswana deported almost 40,000 Zimbabweans last year, according to the IOM.
In an indication of rising concern about the issue, the IOM is hosting a meeting at Victoria Falls next week between immigration authorities in Zimbabwe, South Africa and other southern African countries.
A spokesman for the UNHCR in Pretoria said it was also monitoring the situation.
Poor rains this month have fuelled concern about a possible famine later this year. Speaking from northern Zimbabwe yesterday, Ray Jordan, emergency co-ordinator with Irish aid agency Goal, said there were "huge levels of uncertainty" about the economic and political situation.
"Since the first major food shortage in 2002, people's coping mechanisms have gone down year on year. People have sold their assets and their money is worth next to nothing because of inflation."
He noted that while he was in Harare this week he saw a queue of at least 500 people outside the South African embassy, looking to procure travel visas. "This was at dawn," he said. "Most of the people had queued all night, and their chances of getting a visa were practically nil."
African foreign ministers meeting in Lesotho yesterday steered clear of discussions of the Zimbabwe crisis.
In contrast, religious leaders and human rights groups held demonstrations in Malawi and Botswana, calling for tougher action against Mr Mugabe.
The Catholic archbishop of Bulawayo, Pius Ncube, a long-time critic of the president, urged his countrymen to "fill the streets" and demand Mr Mugabe's immediate departure. "I am willing to stand in front," he said, adding: "My biggest worry is Zimbabweans are cowards . . . It's time for a radical stance, not soft speeches and cowardice."