After the bloody elections, an uneasy calm has settled over Ethiopia's capital

Letter from Addis Ababa : The taxi strike is over and students are concentrating on finishing their exams rather than taking…

Letter from Addis Ababa: The taxi strike is over and students are concentrating on finishing their exams rather than taking to the streets for now.

An uneasy calm has settled over the Ethiopian capital in the wake of bloody confrontations that followed the country's disputed elections. Everyone is waiting to see who makes the next move.

The city's coffee shops are filled with the aroma of roasting Arabica beans and the strains of political gossip.

Akula Iwoube, proprietor of the Tamoca coffee shop, sums up the mood.

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"I am reserving judgment until we get all the results. That's when I will decide," he says, leaning against a counter laden with baskets of coffee beans and ancient Heath-Robinson grinders.

Provisional results suggest opposition parties have made sweeping gains throughout the country. But the two main opposition groupings - the Coalition for Unity and Democracy, and the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces - say they would have done even better were it not for intimidation and vote rigging in rural areas, away from the scrutiny of international observers.

The dispute prompted taxi drivers to strike and students to stage a series of protests on campus, flouting a ban on demonstrations.

Hundreds of students were arrested, bringing more protesters on to the streets.

The police responded three weeks ago by shooting dead more than 30 of the crowd.

Now everyone is waiting to see how the government handles the opposition complaints, with final results due on July 8th.

The country now stands at a crossroads, according to Tesfai Gideon, an accountant. As he swirls a handful of fragrant leaves in his small glass of bitter coffee, he explains that the reaction of the government and the opposition parties could spark more protests.

"For me and for everyone else this is the turning point," he says. "From here, either we will go to hell or we will go to heaven." The election had been billed as a key test of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's commitment to democracy.

He came to power 14 years ago after his rebel army toppled the barbaric, Soviet-backed military government of Mengistu Haile Mariam. Since then he has introduced Ethiopia's first multi-party elections in its 2000-year history.

Alongside Paul Kagame in Rwanda and Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Meles has been backed by the west as an example of a progressive, modern leader.

He is considered a crucial ally of the US in its war on terror and last year he was appointed to British prime minister Tony Blair's Commission for Africa.

The first indications from the elections suggested that Meles had passed the democracy test.

Carter Center observers and monitors from the European Union concluded that the elections had been the most free and fair so far. But the government's reaction to popular protests has set alarm bells ringing around the world.

For many inside the country, it was simply a case of the west waking up to abuses that have gone on unnoticed for years.

Adam Melaku, secretary general of the Ethiopian Human Rights Council, says the west has been conned by a prime minister intent on securing foreign aid.

"This government has been detaining, has been harassing opponents ever since it came to power 14 years ago," he says.

"But because the West was frustrated by Mengistu's regime it was willing to support anything that replaced it."

Six of his staff have been detained as part of a nationwide sweep that has seen as many as 4,000 people arrested.

The government, however, insists the protesters were intent on violence.

Bereket Simon, the information minister, says lethal force and mass arrests were regrettable but necessary measures to prevent the capital being overrun.

He insists that Meles' record should not be judged on single incident.

"You can say that for the last 14 years Ethiopia has changed a lot and in the right direction," he says.

"The government has delivered on most of its promises and we have also been fighting corruption." That has not been enough to prevent a sharp rap on the knuckles from western leaders. Tony Blair and Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, have both telephoned Meles to warn him that further abuses will not be tolerated.

The British government has also withheld a $36 million aid package in protest.

In fact, the killings in Ethiopia could not have come at a worse time for Mr Blair. Next week he will try to persuade fellow leaders of the G8 industrialised nations to back his package of debt relief, aid and trade for African countries.

But events in Ethiopia could undermine his argument that an older generation of corrupt rulers has made way for the sort of leaders that the west can do business with.

Again, much depends on what happens in the coming days and weeks.

David Shinn, American ambassador in Addis Ababa from 1996 to 1999, says the former rebel leader remains a bright hope for the region if he can avoid further confrontations.

Ethiopia - the second most populous country on the continent and occupying a key strategic position in the Horn of Africa - makes Meles simply too important to lose as an ally, he argues.

"I think the US understands the imperfections that exist in the Ethiopian governmental system but it's being realistic to a point - you have to deal with what you've got. And they're willing to do that."