2009 PREVIEW:Six leading Irish motor industry figures give their opinions on sales, the economic downturn, and the future of the business
• EDDIE MURPHY is chairman and managing director of Ford Ireland
What are your sales predictions for 2009?We see the market at around 100,000 units. Ford is positive about the future - the incoming Ka and Fiesta, together with the Focus and Mondeo, should raise market share to 13 per cent.Luxury segments will fare worst, but family segments are suffering from dealers' inability to offer good trade-ins.
How does the US car industry crisis impact us here?Difficulties at the mothership inevitably place budget constraints on subsidiaries.
What will be the biggest instigator of recovery in the Irish market?Availability of credit.
Will used car prices continue to fall in 2009?The first quarter will tell a lot. It may prove a buoyant time for used car sales.
Were the EU "block exemption" rules, forcing dealers to invest in upgraded showrooms, such a good idea?Now is an inopportune time to make that judgment. When the market returns to equilibrium - above 150,000 units - we should have a profitable industry. Demand is not waning and demographic indicators are healthy.
What can be done by car companies or Government to help the market?The market is more competitive than ever, with plentiful deals for customers. A new scrappage scheme could provide a much-needed demand stimulus.
What advice for motorists worried about changing their car in the current climate?There are always advantages to buying in a downturn.
What is the optimum ownership period to get the best value at trade-in time?The crucial determinant of residuals is the level of equivalent aged stock in a given forecourt.
What advice do you have for dealers struggling with cashflow?Resist the temptation to overtrade and place realistic evaluations on trade-ins.
What is the big new future technology in motoring?It's hard to look beyond sustainability, with Ford maintaining the view that there is no single panacea, but a suite of solutions.
Which specific car in your model range is the best buy for 2009?The Mondeo Econetic 1.8-litre diesel: it falls inside the Band B VRT rate, so it's more than €2,000 cheaper than this time last year. And road tax is down, from €530 to €156 per year.
• PAUL CREGAN is managing director of Citroën-Gallic Distributors Ltd
What are your sales predictions for 2009?A market of between 80,000 and 100,000 units seems likely for next year. Sales of upmarket cars and SUVs will continue to suffer.
How does the US car industry crisis impact us here?The problems faced by major US car companies seem to be greater than those faced by European manufacturers. The key issue in Europe will be to maintain maximum flexibility in relation to production levels in order to keep stock levels to a minimum within the supply chain.
What will be the biggest instigator of recovery in the Irish market?Stability in the financial markets and a return to economic growth.
Will used car prices continue to fall in 2009?Until the Irish market absorbs the levels of used car stocks currently held, the situation will continue to be somewhat volatile.
Were the EU "block exemption" rules, forcing dealers to invest in upgraded showrooms, such a good idea?Many dealers made serious financial investments in their businesses, and some - for various brands - seem hard to justify.
What can be done to help the market?Car firms need to deliver products with attractive retail prices, high equipment levels, low CO2 emissions and fuel economy. The Government must cut the fixed cost base of Ireland Inc.
What advice would you have for motorists, worried about changing their car in the current climate?High levels of used cars are having an impact and consumers need to stay in touch with dealers to keep abreast of the trading situation, which should improve in early 2009.
What advice do you have for dealers struggling with cashflow?Dealers need to ensure that they are fully up to date with all their records. They also need to make sure that they are actively marketing their after-sales business.
What is the future technology of motoring?Most carmakers are looking at developing electrically-powered vehicles and we will see the commercialisation of such models in the medium to longer term. Shorter term, we will see more diesel hybrid vehicles with stop-start technology.
Which specific car in your model range is the best buy for 2009?Citroën C5 1.6 HDi Dynamique specification. The Dynamique offers high equipment levels and retails at €29,995, in Band B with annual road tax of €156.
• FRANK KEANE is chairman of Frank Keane Holdings, Irish distributor for Mitsubishi and owner of Frank Keane Naas Road, the BMW and Mini dealer
What are your sales predictions for 2009?I believe it could fall a further 40 per cent to somewhere around 85,000 units, due to the glut of secondhand vehicles. Central to this is the fact that Ireland's is the only car market in Europe with no vehicle registration tax rebate on the export of used cars - we're at a competitive disadvantage.
What will be the biggest instigator of recovery in the Irish market?Stability in the economy, the availability of credit and an increase in consumer confidence will be the biggest instigators of recovery in the market.
Were the EU "block exemption" rules, forcing dealers to invest in upgraded showrooms, such a good idea?Block exemption took an unrealistic approach to the motor trade and highlighted the EU's lack of understanding of the sector. It was necessary to improve facilities and services, but not to the scale the car firms dictated as a result - especially not in a small market like Ireland. The only thing these showrooms do is glorify the manufacturer at significant cost to dealer and consumer. It has also made it prohibitive for entrepreneurs to enter the motor sector.
What can be done by car companies or Government to help the market?The level of financial commitment required by dealers to achieve manufacturer standards is unsustainable. They need to be realistic with targets and standards and work on a local level to promote their business. I've heard talk about bringing back a scrappage scheme - an idea that has a lot of merit.
What advice would you have for motorists, worried about changing their car?Be practical, do your homework and your sums to make sure you are getting the best deal, but ensure it is from a reputable dealer with a proven history.
What is the big new future technology in motoring?I'm very excited about the arrival of electric vehicles to the market. Mitsubishi is a market leader in the development of a fully electrical vehicle in the form of the I Car (iMIEV). It will be on trial in Ireland early next year and will go into full production late next year.
Which specific car in your model range is the best buy for 2009?The 1.5-litre manual Mitsubishi Lancer saloon - an excellent package that at €21,823 ticks the boxes of looks, equipment, safety and running costs as a category C vehicle.
• Mark Teevan is managing director of Lexus Ireland
What are your sales predictions for 2009?One thousand units for Lexus and 100,000 for the market, which will be hit with a continuing move towards diesel. Lexus will try to buck the trend with hybrid petrol/electric cars.
What will be the biggest instigator of recovery in the Irish market?Irish people will not start behaving like consumers again until confidence is restored by the resumption of economic growth and positive media comment, particularly on the creation of jobs and a restored sense of employment security.
Were the EU "block exemption" rules, forcing dealers to invest in upgraded showrooms, such a good idea?The block exemption rules in their own right did not cause problems - most manufacturers developed reasonable standards to apply the rules. Certainly some dealers overstretched themselves, but not necessarily at the instigation of their manufacturers.
What can be done by car companies or Government to help the market?Car companies need to be both realistic and aggressive. Government should resist the temptation to continue to alter the balance regarding CO2 taxation and should look at incentives to restore confidence; the German government has announced a one-year holiday from road tax.
What advice would you have for motorists, worried about changing cars in the current climate?Remember, there will be better deals during a downturn. Concentrate on cost to change as used car values have fallen significantly and some people can't get past their emotional expectations of what their car is worth. The important figure is how much you have to put in.
What is the big new future technology in motoring?Hybrid powertrains are the future of the premium segment; diesel is today's technology, not tomorrow's. There is an accelerated drive into alternative technology and it will not be long before we see plug-in hybrid/electric and second-generation biofuels in showrooms. Hydrogen-powered cars are nothing but a PR exercise.
Which specific car in your model range is the best buy for 2009?The recently facelifted IS 220d S Design at €38,340 - over €5,000 less than the IS cost when launched in 2005 but with the addition of 17" wheels, sport trim and the most advanced stability control system on the market (VDIM) - plus, it's a great drive.
• ADRIAN WALSH is managing director Fiat Group Automobiles Ireland Ltd
What are your sales predictions for 2009? In relation to the overall market, I would be hopeful of it reaching 100,000 units. Fiat should achieve at least 2,000. The market will only begin to stabilise and return to growth with access to credit. SUVs are certainly yesterday's news - the A, B and C segments will benefit most.
What will be the biggest instigator of recovery in the Irish market?Dealers cleansing their used car stocks and having the ability to trade.
Will used car prices continue to fall in 2009?Used values will stabilise. But import prices will dictate further falls.
Were the EU "block exemption" rules, forcing dealers to invest in upgraded showrooms, such a good idea?I think that some brands used block exemption as an excuse to push dealers into questionably large investments, but the improvement in customer facilities is welcome.
What can be done by car companies or Government to help the market?The Government needs to stop meddling with motor tax. The changes in the recent Budget demonstrated a complete lack of understanding of the market.
What advice would you have for motorists, worried about changing their car in the current climate?While used car values have dropped, making the cost of change higher, in many cases running costs mean savings over staying in your current car.
What advice do you have for dealers struggling with cashflow?Do not hide from issues - review and reduce non-essential costs. Try to increase workshop business and ensure that all "work in progress" is completed and invoiced. Franchise dealers should seek support from manufacturers, like credits for fully paid stock.
What is the big new future technology in motoring?More efficient cars. Fiat already has the lowest CO2 emissions in Europe and 2009 will see the launch of Multi-air engines, with roughly 20 per cent more power and efficiency.
Which specific car in your model range is the best buy for 2009?With Fiat, the Bravo Eco 1.6 diesel - a family-sized hatchback with less than 120g/km at below €20,000. It is the only car in its class with an automated gearbox option that keeps it in Band A. In Alfa Romeo, the new MiTo - for €18,995 you can buy a 1.4 petrol Tourismo in Tax Band B that gives you individuality, innovation, sport, style, safety and heritage.
• DAVE SHANNON is managing director of Toyota Ireland
What are your sales predictions for 2009?We estimate the market will be 100,000 passenger units in terms of volume next year, but we would not be surprised if it's a little less, with Toyota accounting for 15 per cent of the overall market.
What will be the biggest instigator of recovery in the Irish market?Consumer confidence is the biggest factor, as well as the ability to have access to retail finance from banks.
Will used car prices continue to fall in 2009?We believe we are very near the bottom for used car prices. This year has seen huge reductions in the price of used cars in the Irish market, with excellent value currently available across a wide range of models.
Were the EU "block exemption" rules, forcing dealers to invest in upgraded showrooms, such a good idea?Overall it was a good idea - the upgrade of showrooms was long overdue. Toyota introduced a minimum set of standards for our dealers to achieve, which were not arduous. Any developments over the standards were at the dealers' discretion.
What can be done by car companies or Government to help the market?Firstly, the introduction of a scrappage scheme would certainly help. Secondly, the introduction of a quality car check for imported used vehicles - it is estimated that 20 per cent of all vehicles imported from Britain are clocked.
A qualified tax amnesty, operating under the old engine size system, rather than CO2, should be introduced, for example for larger-engined cars, to help clear unsold stock and let the industry start afresh.
What is the optimum ownership period to get the best value at trade-in time?The optimum period would be every two years.
What is the big new future technology in motoring? Hybrid is the only answer. It's interesting to note that all of the manufacturers are now following Toyota's lead and developing hybrid vehicles.
The next generation of Prius will have lithium-ion batteries during its lifecycle as well as a plug-in capability. Diesel is not the long-term solution to reduce CO2 emissions.
Which specific car in your model range is the best buy for 2009?Both iQ and Urban Cruiser will surprise many next year. iQ has the drive ability of an Auris in a sub-three-metre package and €104 road tax - a clever solution to today's problem.