Hot fashions, cold weather will keep sales buoyant until new year

Irish retailers expect the significant growth in sales they enjoyed during the first half of the year to continue through to Christmas and into the new year. Although there are some warnings that the boom experienced over the past few years cannot be sustained, overall the mood in this sector remains extremely buoyant.

"We expect an increase in sales of around 30 per cent on this time last year," comments Annmarie Flood, fashion director with the A-Wear group. The womenswear company's stores around the country have had what she calls "a fantastic spring/ summer" with growth of approximately 25 per cent on the same period in 1999. And because the principal fashion trends for the new season are so different to their immediate predecessors, with complete changes in colour and fabrics, A-Wear hopes their customers will plan for a total overhaul of their wardrobes, thereby increasing sales even further.

Due to the nature of the Irish climate, clothing always sells better here during the autumn/winter when cold weather is a certainty than during spring/summer when temperatures are less predictable. All retailers in this area therefore predict a rise in demand for their product over the months ahead.

Sean Barron of the Pamela Scott group looks forward to "at least a 10-15 per cent increase in sales this autumn/winter". The company, which took over the Richard Alan shops earlier this year, has just opened a new 4,000 sq ft outlet in the Blanchardstown shopping centre and intends to open a similar size unit in Swords when the centre there is completed next spring.

During the first half of 2000, sales within all the Pamela Scott shops rose by between 12 and 15 per cent "and I would certainly hope for that growth to continue", comments Mr Barron, who adds that an important factor in retaining customer loyalty is constant maintenance and upgrading of premises; work has recently concluded on the ground floor of the Pamela Scott flagship on Dublin's Grafton Street.

"You must constantly improve your labels and your business to keep the customers happy," observes Sean Barron.

If there are potential blips on the horizon, these have less to do with the willingness of consumers to spend money than with factors entirely outside the control of anybody in this country. One retailer points to the steady increase in the price of oil and the poor performance of the euro as being potentially damaging to the Irish economy and, accordingly, to retail growth. "Eventually," he remarks, "these problems will start to hit people in a market which has gone a little bit mad."

All retailers recognise that the key group to target for ongoing sales growth are women aged between 25 and 34. "Young people have the disposable money today and they're our customer profile," confirms Breege O'Donoghue of Penneys. "These are the people who are looking for fashion and at a good price, which is what we aim to deliver."

While she declines to give a figure for growth during the past spring/summer, saying only "we had a very good season", like other retailers, her expectation for the next six months is that sales will rise by some 15 per cent. Eddie Shanahan of Arnotts agrees "the 25-34 age group is the most powerful segment; this is the key to where growth will be in the next year". However, he has found clothing to be a slower area than household goods where sales have performed especially well.

Among clothes, "brands continue to be important and having a strong branded end is essential". Sales at Arnotts increased during the first half of the year by between 14 and 20 per cent - "some departments were under this figure and some overperformed" - and expectations here are for the growth to continue during the season ahead.