2007: the property pundits predict

Anxious? Worried? Relax - next year's property market will be steady rather than heady say the experts

Mark FitzGerald, CEO Sherry FitzGerald Group

'The market has landed. The economy is back in charge of the property market, rather than the other way around. If there hadn't been a plateau or softening there would be cause for concern to the economy. It's not a cause for celebration but it's a cause for relief. The market in Dublin will be fine. With more moderate prices, yields will get more attractive. The interesting thing is that rents are as strong as they are. In the autumn, the market landed and came to a halt. Now the plane is beginning to move on the runway. If vendors and purchasers are of a like mind, transactions are happening.

"There will be fewer auctions in 2007. You will have high profile private treaty sales and higher valued houses sold privately. The traditional three-week auction campaign was suitable for a more leisurely approach. Three-week campaigning puts more pressure on people, the industry needs to bear that in mind. Three weeks in 2006 is different to three weeks five years ago. Couples have less time to talk and make decisions."

Sean Fitzpatrick, chairman Anglo Irish Bank

'The danger with the residential market is that, if you have a blip, the banks will move in so you have a domino effect that would create problems for people, particularly investors. However, the equity in the housing market is still very strong, which is a positive. The commercial market is very bullish. There is a wall of money out there chasing investment so the outlook is very positive. The immigration impact will have a softening effect on the market. Banks need to be mature, and not overreact to exacerbate the problem - 5 per cent of non-performing loans is no big deal."

Ray Grehan, property developer Glenkerrin Homes

'I am confident that demand will remain strong for 2007 as continued growth in total employment and a net increase in population of 100,000 will continue to underpin demand. With the average household now 2.2 people, the anticipated increase in the population will lead to a demand for 45,000 units. This, together with the latent demand in the market, would suggest that the total demand for new units will be in the region of 85,000 units for 2007.

"Urban sprawl and traffic congestion on the roads to the satellite towns is increasing the demand for homes in the city. However, with limited space available, this demand can only be met by modern high rise developments. "

Dan McLaughlin, chief economist Bank of Ireland

'The year 2007 will be another strong one in terms of transactions. We are likely to see something of the order of 85,000 to 90,000 houses built again. Mortgage lending will probably rise also, by around 20 per cent, something of the order of gross mortgage lending of €28 billion. The combination of the buoyant supply plus higher interest rates would suggest that we are in for a period of modest house price inflation - something in the order of 3 per cent per annum in 2007 and 2008. We need a couple of years in which house price inflation lags behind personal income growth to rebuild affordability. That would be a benign scenario. I don't think conditions are in place for a steeper correction. We would have to have the economy being a lot weaker for that to happen."

Alan Cooke, chief executive IAVI

'The market went ape in the first quarter - you had 25 per cent increases in some areas and as a result vendors' expectations went wild. Those who went to sell in the autumn got a rude awakening. The correction was justified. Money had lost its value. Now that we have all had a wake-up call we can move on. Next year, prices won't go down, but there won't be major growth, though there will be pockets of strength. The truth about interest rates is that money is still cheap.

"Agents will have to address the age old issue of how do you sell a property. It's no longer a question of just marketing a property. There will be an impact on fees. You might see agents looking for a higher rate, or building in contingency fees, if they are going to have to work harder to sell a property."

Pat Gunne, managing director CBRE

'The big problem with the residential market is there are so many mixed messages coming out between estate agents, the media, politicians and bankers. They all have vested interests, so people don't know what to think or who to ask. As a result, the market has taken a breather. Trading has stalled.

"However, when the next interest rate rise has been absorbed and the stamp duty issue is clarified, trading will resume. The economy is healthy and that is where it all starts. My key advice to buyers is, always look at it from the occupational side. Find a home that suits you and don't try to play the cycles. The people who really make money in property are those who hold long-term."

Keith Lowe, CEO Douglas Newman Good

'The influence of immigrants on the Irish house market cannot be underestimated. We are taking in about 60,000 immigrants each year, who will go on the rental ladder, then get the "Irish bug" and buy. It takes two years for non-nationals to get approval for a mortgage. More and more, this is an important element in the city market."

Ken MacDonald, managing director Hooke & MacDonald

'Dublin will see taller buildings getting planning and getting built. There will be continued design improvements in new homes and there will be a big move towards higher insulation standards. There are new regulations coming into force starting in January which will kick-in for new planning applications. We'll see a big move towards sourcing alternative heating systems and that is bound to put new homes at a distinct advantage in terms of maintenance costs.

"The price stability that entered the market in autumn 2006 will follow through for the next year. Price moderation will take the impact off any interest rate increases.

"Still, I feel that the spring market will be good. There is a pent-up demand out there, going on the level of enquiries we get on each development.

"The rental market is strong. Rents have risen by 10 per cent in Dublin city."

Jim Miley, chief executive MyHome.ie

'Contrary to popular myth, the property market has not 'stagnated' or 'ground to a halt' as some commentators would have you believe. In the month of November alone, more than 2,000 properties that had been advertised on MyHome.ie were sold or sale agreed. While this was down somewhat on the rate of sale in the first half of the year, it represents an active market.

"Certainly, it is taking longer to sell properties and there is some stabilisation in prices, itself no bad thing compared with the somewhat unreal price gains earlier in the year. While there has been a marginal decrease in new homes prices, second-hand homes are still maintaining their price across most parts of the country.

"The outlook would suggest a stabilisation in prices in 2007."

John O'Sullivan, residential director Lisney

'The fact that the Government has now defined its position in relation to first-time buyers is good news. Speculation about a possible package for housebuyers had held the market back prior to the Budget, and with this ambiguity resolved, people can move on. A lot is about to happen. We are starting to see offers and people making decisions.

"At the upper end of the market, people are realising that they can negotiate, and they are making offers. Investors whom we haven't seen for a number of years are buying because they can see a turn in property.

"There will be realism. I think those who have unrealistic expectations that something mad is going to happen on the day will be disappointed. Growth levels will be single digit. We are predicting 5 per cent for next year."