20,000 new homes a year needed

The current output of new house completions in Dublin is totally inadequate, according to a research study conducted by DIT Bolton Street in association with the Society of Chartered Surveyors (SCS).

Twice the current annual level of completions are required over the next five years to overcome the chronic shortage in housing supply says the report, called Future Growth of Housing Needs in Dublin.

Among the findings is that an estimated 20,000 new houses and apartments are needed each year until 2006 to stabilise house price inflation in the greater Dublin area - and to eliminate the accumulated shortfall that developed over 1996-2000.

The research was conducted for the four Dublin local authorities to assist them formulate their housing strategies .

While the Government's target of 14,000 new homes per annum falls way below that needed to achieve affordable housing, the numbers actually being attained have stagnated to as few as 9,000 to 10,000 annually.

As completions decline, says the study, demand for social housing has now risen to an estimated 13,000 units.

Average prices for houses under the Shared Ownership scheme have risen by 135 per cent while participant income levels have increased by an average of only 58 per cent. Progress may be further stymied by the fact that any increase in supply would severely strain the resource capabilities of the Irish construction industry.

The SCS became involved, says Harry Lawlor, chairman of its planning and development division, "in recognition of the Society's interest and commitment to this important policy area".

A pent-up demand exists which could have absorbed as many as an additional 45,000 housing units over 1996 to 2000.

The diversion out of Dublin has contributed to urban sprawl, transportation problems, congestion and reduced economic competitiveness, according to the study.

The DIT and SCS plan to come together again to examine specific problems arising out of current housing policy. The findings, due to be published early next year, are expected to generate debate.

"It is obvious from the research to date that more is needed. We need to examine the consequences of policy, as it is clearly evident that there are some issues that need to be addressed," says Mr Lawlor.