Bang on trend

FUTURE PROOF:US trends forecaster Gerald Celente has a track record for getting it right - he said organic foods and gourmet coffee would be huge, and warned a US recession was nigh. So what's in store for the future?

THE YEAR 2008, and beyond, is a sci-fi nightmare of biblical proportions, says Gerald Celente. The man behind the Trends Research Institute has built a career around forecasting economic, political, social and entertainment developments, and has a formidable track record of being bang on the money. Unfortunately for the rest of us, his money is on plenty of hardship around the corner.

Celente says the US's current economic difficulties are here to stay. "People forget that the Great Depression began after the stock market crash of 1929 and only ended when the second World War began. What we have now is capitalism for cowards. Every time the banks and the brokerages get into trouble, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to bail them out, and they're destroying the value of the US currency. People are going to experience worse economic conditions than the Depression," says the bleak forecaster.

"During the Depression, people didn't have mortgages and home equity loans, nor was there a trillion dollars worth of credit- card debt."

And what about this side of the Atlantic? Celente appears to be on the side of those who remember the good auld days, and think that what this country needs is a recession. "I was trained in the dark art of trend forecasting by my father. 'Stop repeating what everyone else is saying and think for yourself', was his advice. Tracking trends is a way of seeing who we are and where we're going."

The former government affairs specialist says tracing trends is cyclical - the same story is repeated over and over again in history. And the current lesson is that people need to stop being wasteful consumers. "This is the end of the dark ages. Just as the Renaissance followed the Black Death, there will be a resurgence in arts and culture. This is an opportunity for another Renaissance. I believe there will be an artistic explosion - in times of chaos, there always is. What we need are new millennium Medicis; people will buy into dignity and respect as quickly as they buy into hatred and thievery."

CELENTE'S VIEW OF THE FUTURE

Going for gold

"The economic downdraught was boosted after 9/11 because interest rates dropped to their lowest level in 40 years," says Celente. "It was cheaper to borrow money, and the cheaper it is to borrow money, the less the money is worth."

He maintains that the dollar's demise of late is a sign of things to come, and other currencies will soon be on a slippery slope. "The US dollar will continue its downward slide, and the weak dollar/strong gold trend will push gold to $2,000 per ounce. I see a major rise in the price of gold."

Work to live

The credit crunch will impact on the value of pensions. "The general standard of living is going to decline, which means there'll be less retirement. We're already working longer and harder that ever before. In the 1970s, I worked 9am to 5pm. Nobody worked two jobs and no one had to be up and on the road at 5.30am and not get home until 8.30pm." Task, not time, will be the main unit of employment, he predicts, which won't be news to anyone who's self-employed, but could put the frighteners on the public sector, in particular.

Mobile homes

With mortgage rates on the rise, many in the US will be living in rented accommodation and even, he says, warehouses. "Jobless, broke and nowhere to go, self-storage will soon live up to the meaning of its name," says Celente. "Homeless Americans will empty out storage lockers of useless junk, to store themselves. When panic strikes, it will only be a matter of time and a question of survival before they move in. Living in concrete and steel 4x8s will be a step up from sleeping in the streets or risking a night at a shelter for the homeless."

Eat your back garden

"There is a move towards higher-quality foodstuffs among the more informed. We're going to continue to try to buy local, and purchase from micro-farms. It's about clean foods whose provenance you can track." Celente says that areas previously used for lawns and low-maintenance specimen trees will be turned into edible landscaping by individuals keen to grow their own. "Buy a bag of fertiliser and grow your own greens. This sense of self-sustaining is on the rise."

Caffeine fix

Celente first forecast the rise in the popularity of gourmet coffee back in 1988. Will we still be looking for caffeine fixes now that the notches in our belts have been tightened? "We'll still buy it, but we won't be going to gourmet coffee houses to drink it. We'll be making it at home instead. The major corporations in this niche are built on a business model based on their ability to expand and grow. What happens when that model matures? Look at how much Starbucks's stock depreciated last year."

H2O who knows?

The ebb and flow of the water market continues to grab our attention. Celente tracked the rise of the bottled water trend as early as 1988. "A significant percentage of the population remain fearful of drinking tap water. Water shortages are going to be huge." He points to the example of Californian restaurant Chez Panisse, which stopped importing bottled water in an effort to reduce its carbon footprint.

Gassed out

"Necessity is the mother of invention, and using fossil fuels to create energy is a fossil idea. Yet alternative energy resources are still difficult to source. There needs to be higher thinking, beyond solar and wind. Biofuel is costly and inefficient. Zero-point energy and cold nuclear fusion are the buzzwords of the future.

"Garage or part-time scientists will point the way forward. Conservation engineers are going to be big. A by-product of the end of oil production will be a whole restructuring of the Middle East and it's bye-bye Dubai."

The US election

"The economic issue is the most important issue in this election, but look at the candidates," says Celente. "John McCain is quoted as saying: 'The issue of economics is not something I understand as well as I should.'

"[McCain] is not a hero, nor a military strategist. He's a victim. His plane was shot down. And Obama is an Oprah Winfrey production. It's very well-staged. He's being coached by Oprah's team; she's behind him. She's a pro, the king and queen of television."

The drugs don't work

This will be the season of the witch. "Heal- yourself healthcare is on the rise. In the US, ads for pharmaceutical drugs are like ads for M&Ms. We're going to elect to become less medicated. Herbal tinctures, vitamin boosters, indigenous and historic healing systems will return to centre stage."

According to Celente, recreational drug users are increasingly turning to legitimate highs, in a trend known as "pharming".

Education

"People aren't spending the time to learn. This is the era of the overnight expert. Despite the money being spent on education, we've built an information-ignorant society and we're delivering dunces. As a result, there will be a rise in home schooling. The virtual world also offers great opportunities for learning."

Why generation

Teenagers also earn Celente's ire. "The Y generation is in for the biggest shock of their lives. They've been elevated by their parents and have shocking levels of superiority and inflated expectations of who they are. They think that because they have technological skills, they're superior. The kids are not special."

Known in some circles as graduate divas, this generation expects high salaries at entry-level, and believe that they're above photocopying and making the tea.

Employee, free thyself

"You and you alone can stop yourself becoming an image slave - a slave to the will and makeover of the industry you work in. If you don't think for yourself, you will become a corporate slave," warns Celente.

As if that doesn't put you off, you might be expected to get fit in new brain-friendly workplaces, where board meetings are conducted on treadmills, desks are equipped with stationary bicycles, and people wear gym clothes, not suits, says John J Medina in the Harvard Business Review. Exercise jogs the brain, and you learn 20 per cent faster immediately after exercise, compared to sitting still, so say goodbye to lazy afternoon slumps.