Points remain at very high levels

Minister for Education Norma Foley’s commitment to this year’s students to retain the overall grade pattern of 2021′s Leaving Cert results has ensured CAO points requirements for most courses remained at very high levels compared to before the pandemic. The introduction of an additional 1,000 places by Minister for Further and Higher Education Simon Harris this year, on top of thousands of additional places in 2020 and 2021, has had a dampening effect on points increases in some cases.

Interest from abroad

There has been a huge increase in applications from students living in our fellow EU countries. This may go some way to explain why the overall number of applicants to Trinity College Dublin has increased by a whopping 45 per cent since 2019 — along with the Normal People effect.

Many EU applicants whose CAO points score is a conversion from their own school examination received offers in round one on Thursday. Due to the extremely late timing of this year’s offers, many of these applicants will have already committed to colleges elsewhere and these places will be re-offered to those with lower points in round two and subsequent rounds.

Big jump in some lower points courses

Some of the biggest increases in points this year are — surprisingly — for courses with relatively low points. So, what’s going on? The pattern of grade increases applied to this year’s Leaving Cert results appears to have had a direct effect on points requirements.

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As part of its move to lift all grades up to last year’s level, the State Examinations Commission added marks ranging from 11 per cent down to 3 per cent, with the weaker results getting the highest numbers of additional marks.

At University College Dublin, for example, the largest increases in points requirements are for courses in the 400-point range, with far smaller increases recorded in higher-points courses. Humanities (442) is up 45 points and modern languages (380) has jumped 60 points. Contrast that with high-points courses such as veterinary medicine (601) and physiotherapy (601) or radiography (556), which were unchanged or down slightly on last year.

Medicine remains high — despite Government intervention

The Government has funded an additional 60 places in medicine this year with the aim of increasing graduate numbers and taking some of the heat out of the points race. Did it work? Not so much. Medicine in both UCD (743) and Trinity College Dublin (745) rose this year even though places were added to their undergraduate programmes. It shows that a surge in demand for specific courses can counteract any effort by the Government to clear bottlenecks in the CAO.

Conversely, where demand dropped substantially this year, as occurred in nursing, points requirements followed suit. General nursing in UCD, for example, is down 11 to 451.

Where there has been an expansion of places, as occurred in disciplines related to the environment, the increase in choice seems to have led to a softening of points requirements for existing courses.

Will more students defer this year?

The accommodation crisis and the late release of this year’s CAO offers may yet lead to significant numbers of places not being taken up within the timeframe of acceptance over the coming days.

Some students caught in this bind may seek to secure a deferment, although colleges don’t like to allow more than 5 per cent of places to be deferred in any course so as not to adversely affect the chances of the following year’s applicants.

It won’t be until round two offers are released next week that we will see the effect of students who, for a range of reasons, cannot accept their offer of a place in this round.

Good news for most students

Most applicants — about 82 per cent — secured an offer of one of their top choices in level eight (honours degree) offers. Just over half — 54 per cent — secured their first preference.

At level six/seven (advanced certificate/ordinary degree) level, the figures are more impressive again: 89 per cent secured their first preference, and 98 per cent cent secured a top three preference.

Tens of thousands of them have already accepted their place online and are looking forward to starting their third level journey in the coming weeks.