`Recognition factor' was invaluable for Dana's success

Noel Treacy's transfers said it all. When the Minister of State was finally eliminated in Connacht/Ulster, the bulk of his vote went to elect Dana Rosemary Scallon, rather than Marian Harkin. A traditional protest vote, so long held by the late Neil Blaney, was going home.

That doesn't diminish Dana's powerful performance. She fought the big political battalions and won. And she fashioned her success from a platform created in the presidential election of 1997.

Two years ago, Dana convulsed Irish politics when she returned from the United States and ran a powerful presidential campaign on a "family values" ticket. She came a very strong third, behind Mary McAleese and Mary Banotti and ahead of Adi Roche and Derek Nally.

The "recognition factor" was invaluable this time out. And her first preference vote of 17 per cent-plus in Connacht/Ulster was a carbon copy of the one she took in the presidential election.

Those pundits who said she made a mistake by not standing in Munster were taught a simple mathematics lesson. Seventeen/18 per cent of the vote in Connacht/Ulster is a far better base than 12/13 per cent in Munster, particularly when the Pat Cox element is factored in.

Of course, there was Marian Harkin to consider in Connacht/Ulster. But the chairwoman of the Council for the West was starting cold and she didn't have a political base. As it happened, they slugged it out to the end: the soft-focus, articulate, family values candidate against the independent economic development campaigner. And Fianna Fail votes decided the issue.

Talk of a collapse in the Fianna Fail vote tells only part of the story. True, its vote dropped by seven points to 35.6 per cent. But Fine Gael, with Joe McCartin as a single candidate, saw its vote fall by 10 points to 19.8. The Labour Party shed five points to 3 per cent. And a decision by the Progressive Democrats not to challenge threw a further 9 per cent into the melting pot.

This was the raw material that fuelled the campaigns of both Dana and Marian Harkin and it provided nearly 35 per cent of the total vote. The size of the protest against the established parties was unprecedented. The largest previous rejection slip came to 27 per cent and was garnered by Neil Blaney in 1979. Mr Blaney lost that seat in 1984; recovered it in 1989 and didn't contest in 1994. The basic message is that this seat fell outside of Fianna Fail control for three of the last five elections.

Given the liberal tic-tac that went on between Pat Cox and Marian Harkin and the erosion of the Fine Gael and Labour votes, it was clear the two Independent candidates were drawing from different vote reservoirs.

But there was a common thread of disillusionment and resentment uniting them. The people of Connacht-Ulster are a suspicious lot. They distrust politicians. And they are even more wary of those Dublin jackeens who try to tell them what to do, while grabbing whatever icing is on the national cake.

As the Celtic Tiger powers ahead, there is a feeling that the west and Border regions are getting left behind. Small family farms are in trouble and economic growth is slow and patchy. Perhaps as important as these factors is the pace of social change, which has left many older people unhappy and confused.

DANA'S campaign - as in the presidential election - was based on traditional values. Symbols, images and cultural values filled the foreground, although she quickly adopted the economic agenda of her competition.

Her ability to master a brief, be it agriculture, health or economic policy, and to engage positively with interest groups impressed many journalists. The line from her presidential election campaign - that she was not a politician - withered and died. She is a consummate political performer.

And Fianna Fail is already warming to her. A party activist was quick to point out that Bertie Ahern had attempted to sign her up for Fianna Fail immediately after the presidential election. Sure, she was almost one of their own, he mused.

But the pain of defeat was hard to bear. Outgoing MEP Mark Killilea talked darkly of "secret organisations" behind Dana. "Abortion" was the unspoken word, and there was a whisper of Youth Defence and Knights of Columbanus involvement. Eamon O Cuiv, Fianna Fail's director of elections, was planning ahead. The Minister of State thought Dana had succeeded because the big parties hadn't listened carefully enough to the people. And he believed it was time the Government produced a Green Paper on abortion and got on with a referendum.

More overt approaches will probably be made in the months ahead. Fianna Fail could find a place for Dana in Strasbourg.