Rebel leader's replacement may leave Yeltsin in still greater trouble

AT first sight, the death of the Chechen leader, Gen Dzhokhar Dudayev, appears godsend to President Yeltsin in his election year. Most Russians have regarded Dudayev as the devil incarnate and his demise will be welcomed by unofficial Moscow.

But there is a host of "devils" waiting in the wings. Experts now forecast an even more hardline Chechen leadership, with attacks in Russia itself in revenge for Dudayev's death. Should these forecasts come true, Mr Yeltsin's campaign would suffer a direct blow and the campaign of President Clinton across the Atlantic an indirect one.

The new Chechen leader is Mr Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, the selfstyled vice president of Ichkeria who has been described in the influential Moscow newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta as an "extreme radical". Totally opposed to negotiations with Russia, he is likely to adopt an even harder line than his predecessor.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta's expert on the region, Mr Alan Kasayev, a native of North Ossetia which borders on Chechnya, told The Irish Times, yesterday that one of the most likely results of Dudayev's death is an escalation of violence and terrorist activity, especially in those areas of Russia proper which border on Chechnya but also extending as far as Moscow, a vast city in which terrorists can easily fade into the background.

Under Dudayev, the Chechen militants had a united command his leadership was undisputed, his orders were obeyed. Mr Yandarbiyev, while more hard line, is by no means as charismatic as Dudayev and is likely to have less control over his combat units, some of whom are more hardline still.

There have always been rivalries among the leading Chechen rebels: Dudayev had been able to keep these under some control but Mr Yandarbiyev is most unlikely to be able to do so.

Officially, Mr Yandarbiyev will lead the Chechen independence movement but he will have two important lieutenants, both regarded as "moderates" in the Chechen context. Mr Khozakhmed Yarikhanov (who will be in charge of political affairs) and Mr Aslan Maskhadov (the military commander) have both had meetings with Russian officials in the past.

OF these, Mr Maskhadov is the more prominent and while he has spoken of a peaceful solution, his military tactics have been tough and relentless. He is believed to have masterminded an attack on a Russian military column last week in which 53 Russian servicemen were killed and hundreds wounded.

Because of Mr Maskhadov's successes in the military sphere, experts including Mr Kasayev believe there will be no change in the situation on the ground in Chechnya. The war will continue with Russian forces shelling villages and Chechen groups using rugged territory to launch surprise attacks against the federal forces.

Any change in tactics and the inevitable attempts to revenge Dudayev's death are now likely to take the form of attacks in Russia proper. Lurking in the background is the shadowy figure of Shamil Basayev, who wrought havoc in the southern Russian city of Budyonnovsk in the most spectacular hostage taking of the 16 month war and caused the deaths of hundreds.

Now that Dudayev is dead, Basayev has become the most popular hero among the rebels: he has already deliberately distanced himself from the new leadership in order to build on his reputation as the "lone wolf" who is ready and able to strike anywhere.

None of this augurs well for Mr Yeltsin, who needs to get Chechnya out of the minds of the electorate before they go to the polls on June 16th; indiscriminate actions in metropolitan Russia by the rebels would worsen the scenario for a President who has been blithely telling anyone who will listen that the war in Chechnya is now over and no military actions are taking place.

The opportunity to claim that Dudayev had been deliberately taken out as part of a presidential plan, something that would add to Mr Yeltsin's popularity at home, appears to have been lost.

The Russian commander on the ground, Gen Vyacheslav Tikhomirov, has already admitted that the death was an accident. The democratic presidential candidate, Mr Grigory Yavlinsky, the most strident anti war campaigner in the field, has issued a statement pointing out the paradox of the Chechen leader being killed in a Russian attack when Mr Yeltsin is denying that any attacks have been taking place ...

Mr Yeltsin's best bet would appear to be to keep these statements out of the public's view on the three main TV channels which he virtually controls. But a major hostage taking or an action which leads to severe loss of Russian lives cannot be brushed under the carpet. Such an eventuality can only damage Mr Yeltsin and drive some voters towards the communist camp and others towards Mr Yavlinsky's brand of liberalism.

DEFEAT for Mr Yeltsin is still a strong possibility. Lending western diplomats who say in public that he will retain his position express strong doubts in private. Such a defeat, particularly at the hands of the communists, would have repercussions not only in Russia and the rest of Europe but also in the United States which is in the throes of its own presidential campaign.

The last thing Mr Clinton wants is for his Republican opponents to finger him as the western leader who presided over Russia's return to communist rule.