Positive signs for supporters of pact

The latest Irish Times/MRBI poll looks good for supporters of the Belfast Agreement. But it's early days yet; the parties are still recovering from their exertions during the referendum battle and before that, for most of them, the marathon finale of the Stormont talks.

The referendum result was a bigger victory than many in the Yes campaign had expected, although it was far from being a rout. One senses that it has stabilised the political scene for the time being; there is less of a sense of volatility about the Assembly election campaign so far.

However, in Northern Ireland one can always be sure that some real or metaphorical hand grenade will explode when you least expect it, shaking the confidence of those who are pushing to transform words into institutions and aspirations into reality. By the same token, these unexpected incidents, whether it be a Balcombe Street style display or an act of paramilitary violence, lend credence to the claims of those who say the peace process is a sham and the Assembly a Trojan horse to trundle unionists into a United Ireland.

The sample for this poll, at 1,005 electors, is twice the size of the one used for the Irish Times/MRBI polls during the referendum campaign and consequently the margin of error is reduced from 4 1/2 per cent to 3 per cent.

The net figure of 33 per cent for the Ulster Unionist Party will be encouraging for Mr David Trimble, although he would be foolish to bet the farm that it will materialise on polling day. Nevertheless, he will no doubt be hoping that the party's support level does not fall back to the fairly dismal 24.2 per cent it garnered in the 1996 Forum elections.

The current mood in the SDLP is a reasonably confident one. The party has had ups and downs and internal problems, but the successful negotiation of an agreement which is broadly in line with the SDLP's philosophy has put a spring in its step.

There was lively competition for nominations to run in the election: one party stalwart observed rather cynically that the lure of a well-paid political position was more of a factor in this than the desire to create a better society. Thus, the mainstream nationalist party will be happy with its net showing of 27 per cent in this survey.

Side by side with the Sinn Fein figure, it looks like a massive endorsement of the moderate nationalists over the republicans. But Sinn Fein supporters in the North do not tend to wear their hearts on their sleeves and the party's 8 per cent net support figure should be treated with due caution.

Supporters of the Democratic Unionist Party also have the reputation for being somewhat circumspect with opinion pollsters, and the party's net figure of 13 per cent, while respectable in itself, could possibly be an underestimation.

Alliance Party supporters, on the other hand, are not known for their reticence in the disclosure of voting intentions. There is encouragement here for Lord Alderdice and his friends, not only in the 10 per cent net support figure but also in the apparent likelihood that the party will benefit significantly from vote transfers.

At this early stage, it looks as if the UUP and SDLP will do well. The DUP will hold its own and may do better than that. Sinn Fein is an unpredictable quantity but has no grounds for complacency and Alliance has the potential to expand its share of the middle ground.

As in the case of the referendum campaign, there is a high level of undecided voters. The role of Mr Tony Blair in persuading the undecideds to vote for the agreement was probably crucial in the referendum campaign. The Prime Minister will be unable to take the same partisan stance in the Assembly elections, although his visit this week - and perhaps more importantly, the visit of Prince Charles - will have sent the kind of subliminal messages that spin-doctors delight in.

Already, decommissioning and the release of prisoners are major issues in the election campaign and this is reflected in the poll findings, with the weapons question listed by 28 per cent of respondents. The same percentage of respondents said peace was one of the major issues and the release of prisoners was mentioned by 14 per cent.

Not surprisingly, decommissioning is a bigger issue for respondents from the Protestant and mainly unionist community, 33 per cent of whom list it among their main concerns. The issue has a rating of 21 per cent among Catholic and mainly nationalist respondents.

Of course the fact that both unionists and nationalists regard it as one of "the most important issues facing the Assembly" does not mean they are unanimous on how it should be dealt with politically.

The percentages are, broadly speaking, reversed when it comes to the issue of "peace". This is listed by 36 per cent of Catholics as one of the most important issues facing the Assembly with 22 per cent of Protestants sharing that view.

This should not be taken to mean that nationalists are the peace-lovers and unionists the warmongers. Rather, it reflects the deep division between unionists and nationalists over how best to achieve peace and stability. Generally speaking, unionists believe it can be achieved by the immediate handover of paramilitary arms and nationalists tend to take a more gradual and long-term approach.

This is reflected in the answers to the question on when decommissioning should begin: "immediately, or before parties take seats on the Executive, or when the other reforms begin"? A total of 49 per cent responded that decommissioning should start right away, with 11 per cent for the second option and 27 per cent "when the other reforms begin".

There is a clear divide here: 61 per cent of Protestants want the weapons handed over now, which is nearly double the 31 per cent of Catholics who take a similar view.

Nevertheless, the proportion of Catholics who want immediate decommissioning is higher than some would have expected. The gradualist approach, on the other hand, is favoured by 45 per cent of Catholics and only 16 per cent of Protestant respondents. Every opinion poll is a snapshot and by the end of a long campaign this one may look like a sepia print. It will be interesting to see if there is a dip in support for the pro-agreement forces, similar to the one they experienced during the referendum campaign. Bono and the Edge may need to keep their instruments tuned.