Peace process hits the buffers but survives to fight another day

Three things should be said at the outset. The "runaway train" may, as one broadcaster put it yesterday, have "hit the buffers". But the vehicle is by no means beyond future commission. While there were casualties (in addition to a knock to Mr Blair's prestige, the Deputy First Minister has gone, the First Minister will probably follow) there were no fatalities. All the injured have every prospect of full recovery.

Second, it is simply astonishing that both governments should have so failed to properly read and anticipate Mr Trimble's position and, in consequence, that of Mr Mallon.

Even on Wednesday night, as UUP delegates made their way to Glengall Street for the decisive meeting of the party Executive, some in the Irish establishment remained convinced everything would come right on the day. Even yesterday morning - when it was manifestly plain it would not - some in the British establishment seemed blissfully unaware of Mr Mallon's resolve that the exercise of the unionist veto would come at a cost to Mr Trimble.

Third, that - for all the entirely justified recognition of Mr Blair's extraordinary dedication to the cause of peace - this crisis, at this particular time was of his choosing.

The manifest absurdity of an "absolute" June 30th deadline was evident the minute it was announced by Number 10 on the afternoon of Saturday, May 15th. The suspicion, moreover, was that it was set in petulant response to Mr Trimble's failure to "sell" the outcome of a marathon 10-hour negotiation in Downing Street the day before.

Yesterday's events at Stormont can be traced directly back to the events of that weekend. Mr Trimble clearly lost the run of himself, as the Taoiseach and Prime Minister sent him into the night without so much as the comfort-blanket of an IRA promise to decommission.

Back home, Mr Trimble's troops drew a number of obvious conclusions. One, that Mr Trimble should never again "go solo" in his dealings with the two governments and the other parties. Two, that - whatever Mr Trimble's previous understandings might have been - Mr Blair would not stand with them in demanding prior decommissioning as the price of Sinn Fein's entry into government. Three, that the "absolute deadline" carried an implicit adjudication on the decommissioning issue against the Ulster Unionists, in favour of Sinn Fein.

For that reason alone - and unless he could somehow change the perception of Mr Trimble's Assembly colleagues - Mr Blair's deadline was not going to be met. Moreover, UUP Assembly members never really believed in it; never really believed that failure to form the Executive on the appointed day would prompt a prime ministerial broadcast announcing the effective end of politics in Northern Ireland.

Which is not to say the Ulster Unionist leader was not tempted. Even on Tuesday night the impression persisted that, if a number of key colleagues had urged him to take the gamble, he would have been willing to oblige Mr Blair.

The whispered word of encouragement never came. Instead - as happened in the final stages of the weeklong negotiations at Stormont - Mr Trimble was warned that entry into government on the terms offered would split his party, and probably fatally. All politics, as they say, is local.

Seamus Mallon was at his magisterial best yesterday in the Assembly, explaining why he felt it his duty to resign as Deputy First Minister designate. Until the last minute he had urged Mr Blair and Mr Ahern to suspend the Assembly - and with it Mr Trimble and himself - and proceed into the review. They refused, and he felt compelled to unilateral action. Turning his heaviest criticism on the Ulster Unionists, he charged they had bled the process dry in the search for concessions, and seemed more interested in "winning the argument over decommissioning" than in actually achieving it.

MR Mallon had also insisted - as he had always let it be known he would - that the d'Hondt process be triggered, the challenge carried to Mr Trimble, and the opprobrium presumably dumped at his door.

However, many observers were left to wonder what had been achieved as the d'Hondt procedure descended into total farce. And even as Mr Mallon delivered his resignation speech, some cynics wondered if there might also be an element of calculation about positioning the SDLP in relation to any action which might be taken by Sinn Fein.

In fact, Mr Mallon has been telling close friends and colleagues for some time that he would not be "hanging around" for the sake of title or office if the institutions of government were not permitted to go live. There is, moreover, a shared nationalist/ republican frustration and discomfort that the only institution to have found any form is the one they are historically and doctrinally most averse to - the devolved Assembly.

But if Mr Mallon can be acquitted of base party or electoral consideration, some Ulster Unionists were making no secret of the fact that the "all politics are local" factor had weighed heavily with them.

Indeed, as they watched the Stormont proceedings on television inside Glengall Street, senior party members roared with laughter when the Rev Ian Paisley - invited to nominate a minister - exercised his right to a 15 minute adjournment. Before the event the DUP leader had proclaimed himself the man with the weapon to slay "the beast" of power-sharing with Sinn Fein. Yet here he was, patently not in control of the situation, seeking time in which to consider his position.

Neither government nor the other parties will be remotely amused that the UUP should find yesterday's Stormont farce a cause for any hilarity. They will be astounded, moreover, to find the internal UUP mood so seemingly far removed from the general impression in the outside world - that the party, and Mr Trimble in particular, scored a spectacular own goal by insulting the Assembly and opting for the republican tactic of boycott.

Inside the Trimble camp there was little patience for such delicate sensitivities. There was also irritation that the press seemed to be ignoring (or be unimpressed by) the real reason for the UUP's no-show - namely Mr Trimble's determination to avoid a situation in which his members might feel trapped into supporting the DUP-sponsored motion seeking Sinn Fein's exclusion from office.

There is no doubt Mr Trimble believed that debate, had it been forced, would have further polluted and prejudiced the political process. Having persuaded his leading defector to withdraw his support from the motion to exclude, the UUP leader was reportedly furious that Dr Mowlam would not reciprocate by declining to proceed with d'Hondt.

To critics last night this provided no answer to the question as to why Mr Trimble at least could not have appeared to state his position before the Assembly. It also prompted some to wonder what such a state of anxiety about his Assembly colleagues said about Mr Trimble's control and authority.

Within the UUP Assembly Party itself, however, the settled view appeared to be that Mr Trimble's authority had been enhanced by the day's events. According to one backbencher the wider community saw Mr Trimble as a man "being worked over by the British and Irish governments, and by the Americans, and refusing to yield". Where barely 24 hours before they had feared their leader would prove to be another Brian Faulkner, now the reckoning was that "holding this line has been good for unionism". In addition, the source ventured, "Trimble will now be seen as a strong man. And of course strong men can do things weak men can't."

The implication was that the UUP leader had bought himself time, and would actually enjoy a degree of flexibility come the autumn not available to him in the hot-house month of July.

In which context, there is one potentially benign result from yesterday's failure - namely that the review process means the final decision on whether or not to proceed into government will come after the Patten report.

It had always seemed possible that, even had Mr Trimble gone ahead yesterday - inviting party defections along the way, but just about surviving - he could subsequently have been blown out of the water when Patten was finally published.

According to one theory last night there is now the possibility of an intelligent and protracted debate about the Patten proposals - and the opportunity to draw and discharge some of the inevitable poison - before the key decision has to be taken.

From such straws both governments were last night attempting to make some bricks. Against the hope, however, must be the fear that the Patten report, and the unionist response to it, could further bolster those within the UUP whose aim is to stretch this process until next May and then seek to renegotiate the whole package.

In a pitch to Sinn Fein yesterday, Mr Trimble sought to demonstrate his good intent. "We know this can't work without you," he told them. "But you must also know it cannot work without decommissioning." For all that changed yesterday, the fundamentals remained the same. And the obstacle which produced the crash quite simply hasn't gone away.