Only political miracle can take Dole to White House

AS a further step to the White House, the San Diego convention should be a glorious moment for Bob Dole in his 20 year old quest for the presidency.

Instead he looks like a lost cause that only a political miracle can rescue between now and November 5th. The latest poll this week shows him falling further behind.

It is asking a lot of a man of 73, partially crippled from war wounds, with one kidney and a survivor of prostate cancer to overtake Bill Clinton, enjoying a 22 per cent lead in the polls.

Mr Clinton has just turned 50 and is in his political prime, having honed his natural skills during the past four years in the White House. Backed by the power and prestige of the presidency, he should be able to coast home in November.

But Mr Dole is a fighter and will not quit even if his supporters are losing heart. The story of how he overcame his terrible wounds after two years on his back in a military hospital, went through law school without being able to take notes and launched himself into national politics shows that he is tougher physically and mentally than most.

Now that the post of the most powerful leader in the world is the prize, Mr Dole will fight even harder. The electorate trusts him more than Mr Clinton but like his closest friends they don't really know who he is.

They know about the tough times he experienced as a boy, growing up in the Kansas dust bowl during the economic depression of the 1930s, and how his family had to rent out the main floor of their house and live in the basement.

They know how Mr Dole's neighbours in Russell contributed to the cost of orthopaedic surgery on his shattered right arm and shoulder by putting money in a cigar box on the counter of the local drugstore.

They know he was elected to the House in 1960 on a Republican farm vote and got to the Senate eight years later, a Senate that he worked and practically lived in for the next 26 years. These years in Washington made him the supreme example of the "Beltway politician", superb at the wheeling and dealing to win the vital votes HEX there was the high profile as he defended his mentor, President Nixon, during the Watergate scandal. In 1976, he was on the losing Republican ticket with outgoing President, Gerald Ford, and earned the nickname hatchet man for his abrasive tactics.

He took defeat by Jimmy Carter so badly that for months after the election he would order his driver to drive past the White House to brood at what might have been.

Determined to banish this humiliation, Mr Dole campaigned for the Republican nomination in the 1980 election against Ronald Reagan, but it was a disaster and he was forced to withdraw to ensure that he held his Senate seat.

In 1988, with Mr Reagan heading for retirement, Mr Dole took on the then vice president, George Bush, for the nomination but again bungled his campaign, firing managers and losing his temper publicly with Mr Bush.

In spite of the best efforts of his aides, Mr Dole was unable to run a focused campaign and failed to tell the voters what he stood for apart from platitudes.

In view of these failed efforts, many wonder why he is risking yet another humiliation in his quest for the White House.

The recent book by Bob Woodward, The Choice, reveals how he dithered for months last year before he could commit himself to take on Mr Clinton.

So while these well publicised events in Mr Dole's long career are well known, the man himself remains an enigma. It was only this week that most people learned how cavalierly he treated his first wife, Phyllis, who had helped him greatly to overcome his handicap.

After 23 years of marriage, he walked in one night and told her abruptly "I want out", and then used lawyer friends to ensure the divorce was hastily put through with no publicity. He has remained on friendly terms, however, with both Phyllis and their only daughter, Robin.

His second marriage has been a spectacular success. "Liddy" Dole has been an inspirational figure and trusted adviser for a man who unlike Mr Clinton does not enjoy the rough and tumble of the hustings and often appears distant and even cranky.

Privately, he is witty and compassionate, but his dark side probably aggravated by his wounds can be scary as his staff over the years have discovered.

IT is bad luck for Mr Dole that he has become leader of a Republican party that under the combined influences of Speaker Newt Gingrich and the religious right has become more ideological and conservative, while his own political instincts are to make the party as broad a church as is necessary to win the presidency.

Mr Dole has been clumsy in his efforts to draw the party towards the centre while not alienating the increasingly conservative right.

His handling of the abortion issue is a good example of how he first defied the pro life faction and then caved in for fear of a Pat Buchanan revolt on the floor of the convention.

But in doing so he has deeply antagonised moderates and many women voters who fear the stridency of the religious right.

He has now sown further distrust by embracing an across the board 15 per cent tax cut and the supply side economics he once derided as "voodoo" when put forward by Mr Bush.

What does Mr Dole really stand for? What is his vision for the America of the close of the century? If he has one, he is finding it very hard to articulate. His last chance will be in San Diego next week when he will have the stage to himself and thousands of supporters only waiting for his inspiration. It could be the most important speech of his life.