Number of cardinal electors exceeds limit

The Pope creates 44 new cardinals next week in the knowledge that this is probably his last opportunity to put the final shape on the conclave to elect his successor.

Why else would he have raised to 135 the number of cardinals under 80 years of age and, therefore, entitled to vote? That is 15 more than the maximum of 120 permitted in the constitution.

It is clear that he did not originally intend to create so many. When he announced the consistory on January 21st there were 39 on the list.

But it had one glaring omission. South Africa had no cardinal. The phones must have begun to buzz between the Pretoria nunciature and Rome. Other nuncios appear not to have been idle either. The result was that a week later the Pope added to the original list.

Not only was the Archbishop of Durban, Dr Wilfrid Napier, to be included, but so also were two Germans (including the Bishops' Conference president, Dr Karl Lehmann), a Ukrainian and a Bolivian.

Were questions raised with Rome about the omission of Armagh? Maybe the new Nuncio to Ireland was not alive to the possibilities. Or perhaps Rome said Ireland could not expect two cardinal-electors. To which the response could have been that the dioceses of Turin and Lima have two cardinal-electors each, their present and retired archbishops.

The next conclave is certain to be the largest ever, contrasting sharply with that of 1958 which elected Pope John XXIII. It had only 51 members, because his predecessor, Pius XII, was averse to creating cardinals and held only two consistories.

John XXIII held five consistories in four years and increased the number of cardinals to more than 70 for the first time since 1586. Yet he actually made the college more Italian and more curial than it had been when he became pope.

It was his successors who really internationalised the college. Sixty-two countries are now represented. Africa, which got its first cardinal in 1960, now has 16, of whom 13 are electors. Latin America has 26 electors, including Archbishop Cipriani Thorne of Lima, who becomes the first Opus Dei cardinal at the coming consistory.

The expansion has meant a big drop in the proportion of Italians. In the 1958 conclave one-third (17) were Italians. This declined to a quarter at the 1978 conclave and is now just over 17 per cent.

John Paul II has appointed more cardinals (161) than any of his modern predecessors, yet the electoral college is now aging. Sixty per cent of its members are over 70. Only seven are in their 50s.

In 1978, 18 of the 111 electors were in their 50s, one was in his 40s and five others had just turned 60. Only 42 per cent were 70 or over.

And when John Paul himself named 14 cardinals in the first consistory in 1979, six were in their 50s, including our own Tomas O Fiaich, and the average age of the cardinal-electors was reduced to 64.5. After the coming consistory it will have risen to 68.5. Only three of the sizeable new intake are under 60.

In 1979 the Pope himself was only 59. Today he is 81. The College of Cardinals has aged with him.

THERE will be endless speculation from now on about the next pope. A health warning: it is almost impossible to forecast how 120 or more cardinals will vote in a secret ballot, especially when the constitution explicitly forbids them from making any pacts or promises.

Two names never mentioned in the millions of words and acres of newsprint devoted to forecasting the outcome of the last two conclaves were Albino Luciani and Karol Wojtyla (Pope John Paul I and Pope John Paul II). The cardinals surprised everybody (twice) in 1978. They are likely to do so again next time.

It is fanciful to imagine cardinals being manipulated by "Rome" in the choice of pope, even supposing "Rome" to be all of one mind. Most diocesan bishops, cardinals included, have a robust respect for their office and do not see themselves as branch managers of a multinational corporation. There is normally a healthy tension between the centralising impulses of Rome and the appropriate autonomy of the local church.

However, the choice of cardinals, as of other senior church leaders, is naturally influenced by the prevailing mood in Rome. Just now that is one of consolidation.

It is hardly surprising that many of those appointed cardinals in recent years have been conspicuous consolidators. They have not become so to curry favour with Rome. They are people of conviction, and some have demonstrated considerable moral courage.

But even in its periodic bouts of retrenchment Rome continues to value that prophetic quality I would describe as "the truly discerning mind".

The highest leadership body in the church needs a balance between guardians and prophets: guardians to protect and defend the integrity of the church's teaching; prophets with the vision to see the wider picture and to illuminate the transcendent in a way that connects persuasively with our questioning and sceptical world.

While today the electoral college is well endowed with guardians, there are prophetic voices there, too. They will not go unheard in the conclave, at which a two-thirds majority is required to elect the pope.

Jim Cantwell was director of the Catholic Press and Information Office from 1975 to 2000. He is working on a study of the College of Cardinals in the contemporary church