No need to get excited about `Irish dust bowl' says Met Eireann expert

Ireland has just enjoyed its sunniest July since 1990 and while below-normal rainfall figures led to soil moisture deficiencies in the south-east, we should not get excited about an "Irish dust bowl", according to Met Eireann.

In fact, while there is a discernible pattern of slightly warmer weather, there is no conclusive proof that we have anything to worry about. "The trouble with deducing patterns from weather," says Mr Peter Lennon, a senior meteorologist with Met Eireann, "is that there are just too many variables to tell".

For example, while the eastern states of the US and south-eastern Canada may be experiencing one of their worst droughts, and while at the same time East Asia is suffering severe flooding, "it really is too difficult to say this is a result of global warming.

"People can put the information into computer models and analyse trends, but they don't always give the same results."

As with the legend of a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a storm on another continent, in practical terms the weather is influenced by many factors, some of which may be continents away.

"An example of the many differing factors involved was provided by last year's El Nino effect when cold water currents in the Pacific off the west coast of South America affected the weather pattern as far away as Indonesia, causing droughts leading to fires and significant damage," he says.

"Some would tie in a global effect pointing to overall patterns of warmer weather, but you can't say what that would cause here," he adds. Whereas in Ireland the month of July was notable for its warmth, sunshine and lack of rainfall, in fact were it not for the dramatic change in weather from July 26th, sunshine totals would have been well below normal.

Figures reveal that the month started with spells of rain between July 1st and 4th, turning to dry cloudy weather until the 8th, and some generally sunny weather until the 12th - with the fine spell ending on the 13th.

There was rain between the 13th and 16th, but the period between the 17th and the 20th was the wettest of the month in most places. Rainfall of between 20 mm and 40 mm was recorded in north-western areas during this time. There was light rain and a weak cold front over most of the country until the 25th, when it became sunny in all areas.

Once again the "sunny south-east" proved worthy of the name with Rosslare recording the highest overall hours of sunshine throughout the month, at 231 hours.

The late spring and summer so far have been very dry near southern and south-eastern coasts, where only half of the normal rainfall was recorded for the period. As a result, soil moisture deficits in these areas were high by the end of July.

The sudden downpour over the first few days of August will have rectified the situation in a fashion which Mr Lennon says is typical of the Irish climate. "If we do get anomalies, they tend to right themselves very quickly in our experience," he says.

The Irish Farmers Association is perfectly content with this year's weather so far, however, perhaps because of the good growing conditions which make a repeat of last year's fodder crisis very unlikely.

So how will global warming manifest itself in Ireland?

Well, that is really too complicated to say. "The only thing we can be sure of is that global warming is taking place," says Mr Lennon, who goes on to dash the hopes of those anticipating Spanish-style summers. "July was generally a dull month until that last week when a period of almost unbroken sunshine brought monthly totals above normal everywhere."