No knowing who'll look good on the dancefloor

WHAT do Gay Dad, Ultrasound, Mario, Chicks, The Unbelievable Truth and Witness have in common?

All six are acts who were confidently tipped for success by various music pundits one January or other over the past few years. But none of these acts went on to become household names beyond their own hall door. All are now just footnotes (if that) in pop's great story of the blues. Fame and fortune belched loudly in their faces and went on to shine on some other wretches instead.

No doubt all of the above and countless other acts who have been previously tipped for the top, now treat the annual slew of predictions from experts and pundits with a salt cellar or two. Those acts who packed in their day jobs because someone in the prediction business thought they were the next big thing have every right to be particularly peeved at this time of year. All they can do now is rue those lost promotions and missed office parties.

A few weeks ago, The Ticket carried a selection of predictions for 2006 from various industry insiders. Because these people actually toil day in and day out in the music business, you would probably think that they would have a good handle on what actually works. Unfortunately, there's no such thing because no-one has a clue why certain acts become stars and certain acts have to content with looking up at them.

Don't look at me for answers either. This time last year, I tipped Jem, The Game, Arcade Fire, Bloc Party, John Legend and The Magic Numbers, so that was a good return. But I also tipped Micah P Hinson to be the new Will Oldham and Lisa Hannigan to cut a solo dash. Like you, I'm still waiting for these events to happen.

As this shows, you win some and you lose some. A couple of the acts who have been widely tipped will go on to have an excellent 2006. Some will do nothing this year, but may find that 2007 or 2008 will be their year. Other acts will simply fade from view.

Every single one of the acts from the opening paragraph probably thought they had a good shot at the crown. They had record deals, they had publicity machines and they had roadies who wore black T-shirts. But it was not to be.

What happened in most of these cases is that time moved on. This industry has a vampire-like craving for new blood and raw talent. What is hot in September can be stone cold by April. On the face of it, nothing really changed for our would-be stars. They were still writing songs, playing gigs and attracting decent audiences. But their sound was suddenly deemed to be old hat and everyone was falling over each other to schmooze or copy the next bunch of young hopefuls to ride into town.

You can already see the lie of the land following the huge off-the-bat success of the Arctic Monkeys. All those bands who're dealing from an arch, arty, post-punk deck of cards will find that only looked good on the dancefloor in 2005. This year is when lines like "there's only music so that there's new ringtones" and "can see it in his eyes that he's got a driving ban amongst some other offences" are set to rule the roost.

Time will tell if the Arctic Monkeys' magnificent debut album, Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not, proves to be as seismic a release as, say, The Stone Roses. However, similar side-effects can be expected as a result of the album's success. Industry talent troops will swarm through the streets of various Northern English towns looking for their own Monkeys. There will be several dodgy compilation albums with "Sheffield" in the title. Demand for Gang of Four and Joy Division CDs will drop off sharply.

Then again, this year may see someone completely unheralded hitting the top. After all, few in the tipping business saw James Blunt coming down the tracks a year ago. A new James Blunt in '06? Now there's a scary thought.

jimcarroll@irish-times.ie