National Forum on Europe needs to be well resourced to reconnect electorate with EU

That the Irish electorate's rejection of the Nice Treaty is a shock to Europe just as much as to the Irish political establishment is readily apparent here in Gothenburg. The low turnout of 35 per cent exemplifies just how incomprehensible the treaty was to many citizens and the failure of Irish political leaders to offer a vision of a united continent capable of mobilising those who have traditionally supported European integration. It is not difficult to imagine similar outcomes in other member-states were the issue to be put to referendums there or, indeed, in the candidate states.

In his statement to the European Council yesterday, Mr Ahern said the result "graphically underscores what I believe all of us around this table already know: that there is, unfortunately, a widespread sense of disconnection between the institutions of the Union and its citizens. . . There is a real and urgent need to focus on how we can make the Union more meaningful to our citizens and on how its democratic legitimacy can be strengthened".

Disconnection aptly describes what is at stake. In tackling the crisis thrown up by the result, Ireland's political elite is being forced to open up a democratic debate about Europe that could set constructive precedents elsewhere in the EU. It will need to address the Nice Treaty in preparation for another referendum and the wider debate on the future of Europe, heading for the 2004 inter-governmental conference on the EU's constitutional future.

Pressure is building up from Germany, Denmark and several of the accession states to have the issue resolved sooner rather than later - at latest by next summer - to defuse uncertainty about EU enlargement.

That affects the timing of the next Irish general election - and the contents of the next Irish Budget, which was an issue in the discussion of the EU's economic guidelines here yesterday.

Truly this is an intrusive agenda for the Irish body politic. It illustrates the perils of rushing the referendum, which the Taoiseach said would have seen the Nice Treaty safely ratified in time for the Gothenburg summit. Instead he finds such basic questions as when to hold an election and how to frame a pre-election budget becoming intimately bound up with EU politics. The National Forum on Europe will be set up in the autumn to "allow for more systematic and extensive debate on the European Union and its future direction than has ever proved possible", Mr Ahern told the summit yesterday. He added that "there are also important questions to be considered regarding how our national parliament scrutinises EU business".

Both these reforms will need to be up and running rapidly if they are to influence public opinion to reconsider the No result and turn out in much greater numbers in another referendum. The new deliberative institutions will need to be well resourced. There is precedent for that in the Northern Ireland forum that deliberated and reported in the mid-1990s. But it will be necessary to look elsewhere for adequate models of how a better parliamentary committee system on EU affairs might work.

The existing Oireachtas EU committee is grossly understaffed and finds it difficult to get effective participation. This puts it at a disadvantage with experts from the civil service.

Unlike similar committees in Denmark and Finland, for example, it is unable to track the Government's agenda in the EU ahead of, or even shortly after, negotiations.

There is an interesting debate within the Government on how far it is prudent to go in that direction.

Disconnection well describes the gap between government and public opinion revealed by the referendum result. EU integration locks the Irish Government and its 14 partners into a system of inter-dependence in which governing begins at home but does not end there. The demand for greater accountability in EU affairs requires that this be true of political identity and democracy as well.

The low turnout reveals that the framework established in the first generation of Ireland's membership no longer holds the allegiance of those who have previously accepted European integration. A crucial group abstained - estimated (perhaps over-estimated) by Mr Ahern yesterday at 20 per cent - either because they felt ill-informed about the treaty or were indifferent to it. Clearly they are assumed to be usual Yes voters.

Why they did so requires urgent explanation and attention in any other referendum. Mr Ahern was coy at his press conference here yesterday on whether it would be held; but, if it is, it will be essential to reconnect with those who have previously supported European integration but may now feel it is possible to survive without it, or with more minimal engagement with it. That puts up the stakes rather dramatically. We can certainly expect European issues to come much more into the centre of national politics as a result.