Namibia blames Savimbi for Caprivi secessionist rebellion

Compared with the civil war raging in Angola, the clash between Caprivi Liberation Army combatants and Namibian security forces in Caprivi, an enclave in Namibia, is a minor conflict, even though at least 13 people were killed in a shoot-out between the two sides on Monday.

But there may be a link between the prolonged internecine war in Angola and the launch of an armed struggle by Caprivi separatists in Namibia.

The Namibia security forces think there is. They have pointed accusing fingers at Dr Jonas Savimbi, leader of the Unita rebels who are trying, once again, to seize control over vast tracts of Angola from the MPLA government of President Eduardo Dos Santos. They accuse Dr Savimbi of arming and training the Caprivi secessionists.

Dr Greg Mills of the South African Institute of International Affairs thinks Namibia's security force officers may have a point. He points out that the SWAPO government headed by President Sam Nujoma of Namibia is a long-time ally of Mr Dos Santos's MPLA and hence an enemy of Unita's. He sees the hand of Dr Savimbi in the Caprivi revolt, arguing that it is a move to forestall intervention by Namibia in Angola in support of the MPLA by stirring up trouble in Mr Nujoma's backyard.

He cities the timing of the assault by Caprivi combatants on government installations in Caprivi, including the local headquarters of the Namibian Broadcasting Corporation, in support of his view. The attack came as Caprivi citizens who fled to neighbouring Botswana last year were starting to return, thus ending or, at least, postponing settlement of the differences between Namibian nationalists and Caprivi separatists.

Dr Mills's research specialist on the region, Dr Sagaren Naidoo, agrees. Unita and the Caprivi Liberation Army are bound by their common enmity for the Namibian government. The old axiom - the enemy of my enemy is my friend - applies in the region, he reckons.

Mr Jackie Potgieter, of the Pretoria-based Institute of Security Studies, is more cautious about endorsing theories of a Unita-Caprivi alliance. Cartridges fired from Caprivi rebel guns identify their weapons as R4 and R5 rifles, not the AK-47 assault rifle commonly used by Unita soldiers, he states. He finds it significant that when the secessionist sympathisers fled from Caprivi they crossed the border into Botswana, not the border into Angola. One reason for that is tribal, he believes. The Lozi people of Caprivi have kinsmen in Botswana and Zambia, but not Angola, he notes.

Nobody is accusing Botswana of aiding the Caprivi combatants. But it is an open secret that Namibia was angered by Botswana's decision to grant refugee status to Caprivi secessionists who fled there last year. The quarrel over refugees has aggravated a long-simmering dispute over the ownership of an island in the Chobe River which separates the two countries. The ownership dispute has been referred to the International Court of Justice in The Hague.