Italian confusion on Albania role shows underlying weakness

IN Frankfurt, one or two senior bankers were probably nodding their heads in "we told you so mode.

The 11 month old centre left government of Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi may well have narrowly survived this week's crisis and Italy's commitment to the UN mandated peacekeeping mission it will lead into Albania was finally confirmed in parliament yesterday.

But the week's events have cruelly exposed the underlying fragility of the Prodi government and the all too familiar instability of the Italian political system.

The Frankfurt bankers, German public opinion or anyone opposed to the inclusion of Italy in the first wave of single European currency countries can point to its handling of the Albania crisis and argue that its unstable political system represents too big a risk to include Italy in the start up of the euro.

The sight of the Prodi government teetering on the brink of collapse will have badly frightened the bankers, the market place and Mr Prodi. History may be less than kind when assessing the mixture of government ambiguity and opposition cynicism which, if only temporarily, jeopardised the mission to Albania.

And this has happened when, for the first time since the 20 year fascist dictatorship of Il Duce Benito Mussolini, Italy is being called on to assume a leading role on the world stage. As Mr Prodi reminded parliamentary deputies yesterday, history and geography morally oblige Italy to head international efforts to resolve the Albanian crisis.

Despite its role as a founding member of the European Union, Italy has long been a division two member of the international community, a country whose political clout was minimal when compared with its status in the world's fifth largest economy.

As a western power, Italy has spent most of the post war period trying to win friends rather than make enemies, trying to avoid onerous responsibilities rather than take brave initiatives.

For the first time since 1945, it is being asked to pay the price of its privileged western lifestyle and lead the rescue mission to Albania.

And how has Italy's political and ruling class responded? Badly, it should be said, and probably out of touch with the 69 per cent of Italians who (according to opinion polls) are in favour of sending an Italian led mission to Albania.

Faced with the Albanian crisis, the government's ambiguity and subsequent fragility have become manifest. Ambiguity arises out of the situation whereby Mr Prodis Olive coalition depends on the votes of the hard line left wing Rifondazione Commuuista without including Rifondazione in the cabinet.

Ambiguity emerges in the political subtle speak whereby Rifondazione party chairman Mr Armando Cossutta could say yesterday: "We are against the Albanian mission but not against the government." We are for you but we are also against you.

Rifondazione's objections to the Albania mission are threefold. It argues that it will (a) prop up the corrupt regime of Albanian President Sali Berisha, (b) will achieve little in the current confusion and (c) may result in needless bloodshed, especially among the 2,500 strong Italian contingent.

The ambiguity fundamental to the Prodi government is also exemplified by the actions of Mr Massimo D'Alema, leader of Democratic Left (PDS), the former Communist Party and single largest party in the governing coalition.

Mr D'Alema is not in the cabinet, but he still likes to have a major say in government policy, so much so that some Rome diplomats refer to him as "The Boss".

On April 21st last year, Mr D'Alema stood on the electoral platform alongside Mr Prodi celebrating the Olive coalition's general election victory. On March 22nd this year, he joined in a confederated trade unions protest march against the government.

I am for you but I am also against you.

Mr D'Alema cannot be faulted in relation to this week's Albania crisis but his overall role, that of the unseen puppet master pulling the Prodi strings, has done little for government stability.

Worse still, it is a role that is all too familiar, a perfect expression of the old "pairtitocrazia" Cold War days when being chairman of the Christian Democrat party was much more important and more influential than being prime minister.

As for the opposition's cymcism, that was all too clearly made visible, not just with the threat (finally withdrawn) to vote against the government on the Albania mission but on its willingness to make political gain out of the crisis. This was most graphically expressed by Mr Silvio Berlusconi's emotional, tear ridden Easter Sunday visit to the survivors of the Otranto Strait tragedy in which 80 Albanian boat people are believed to have drowned.

THAT Mr Berlusconi and his senior partner, Alleanza Nazionale leader Mr Gianfranco Fini, would make the most of the government's difficult moment (and of Junior Foreign Minister Mr Piero Fassino's gaffe on Tuesday when saying that President Berisha "has to go") was predictable, if not statesmanlike. They can argue, however, that the government has created its own problems since the parliamentary numbers game makes it a hostage to the whims, slings and arrows of Rifondazione.

In that contest, this week's crisis could prove to be a case of future internal strife being merely postponed.

It was significant to hear Deputy Prime Minister Mr Walter Veltroni comment yesterday, immediately after finally enlisting the opposition's support for the Albanian motion, that the government's next problem would be reform of the welfare state.

Such reform and indeed the early presentation of the 1998 Finance Bill are likely to prompt a showdown between Mr Prodi and Rifondazione.

Rifondazione leader Mr Fausto Bertinotti has already made it clear that if the price of Italian inclusion in the first wave of the euro involves pensions cuts, tax rises and public service cuts, then you can count him out.

Count him out and, eventually, you count out the Prodi government. The Frankfurt bankers are still nodding, in eager anticipation of Mr Bertinotti's next move.