Is there stamina to ride the peace roller-coaster again?

THE seasoned media hand was categoric. "I can handle the despair, it's the hope that screws me up. What he meant was that the dreary round of day to day violence was something you could get used to and in an odd way come to terms with, but following that damned elusive peace can drive you mad.

Since the bright dawn of August 31st, 1994, turned into the pitch black night of February 9th, 1996, have we any innocence left? Recalling how the emotional catharsis of the IRA cessation was blown to smithereens at Canary Wharf, can we rally one more time for Peace Process Mark II?

Constitutional politicians on the nationalist side, North and South, are like the family of an alcoholic. Will he really give up the drink this time? We must take a firm line. If he promises to abstain we have to give him one more chance because the alternative is too awful to contemplate.

Meanwhile, voices like David Trimble's are urging us, as he did in the Belfast Telegraph last week, to proceed without Sinn Fein and the IRA, which he described as an "unreformable terrorist gang".

But even UUP sources acknowledge that, as things stand, there is only so far you can go with the SDLP before the majority nationalist party in the North has to slow down for its republican cousins to catch up.

The nightmare for the SDLP must be to find itself in the position where John Redmond and John Dillon ended up in 1918. Many believe, including senior sources in the Government, that the prestige and political skill of John Hume have been crucial in preventing that from happening up to now.

There is a terrible and growing impatience with Sinn Fein and the IRA in nationalist circles North and South. It seems to nationalists that every time they come up with an answer, the republican movement changes the question.

All party talks? Fine Here's a date, here's the ideal chairman, come on in. But no, Gerry Adams and his friends marched up to the gates of Stormont, but somebody had smelt a trap, so they didn't go in.

Politics died last summer. We had the nationalists losing the away match at Drumcree but winning the home fixture in Derry. Now the political game is back on track with Adams, Martin McGuinness and their colleagues holding out the tantalising prospect of a ceasefire if the British government would only play ball.

Most observers reject the prospect of a ceasefire before the Westminster election unless John Major decides to "risk all upon a gambler's throw", grabs the mantle of Gladstone and presents himself to the world and the British electorate as the Great Problem Solver.

After the 1992 election nobody can ever count John Major out he is the Boris Yeltsin of western Europe, whose true potential only comes to the fore when he is halfway over the precipice.

But the most likely prospect of course is for Labour to take power, especially after last week's rural by election triumph. Seasoned observers warn that the republican movement may be naive if it expects a better deal from new Labour than the soft underbelly of Toryism.

The strong stance taken by Dr Mo Mowlam on the parades issue has been encouraging to the nationalist side, but one wonders how many senior Labour people share the views expressed by John Lloyd in a recent New Statesman article which began. "There is no point to the Northern Ireland peace..." and identified the root of the problem as Articles 2 and 3 of Bunreacht na hEireann.

THERE is certainly a very appealing simplicity to the notion that the line drawn on a map nearly 80 years ago would be accepted at lone last by all so that everyone could get on with their lives. Lloyd points out, for example, that Poland is not claiming Vilnius back from Lithuania, but then Vilnius isn't Crossmaglen.

The high risk strategy of the republican movement appears, up to time of writing, to be going according to plan. There has been enough violence to remind the rest of us that "they haven't gone away, you know".

Will the shock and outrage over the killing of Lance Bombardier Stephen Restorick damage Sinn Fein's electoral prospects? The stark and terrible reality is that it will not. There were acts of violence and carnage prior to the Forum elections last year, yet Sinn Fein still scored its highest vote in the North.

A public meeting held last week in the strongly nationalist village of Carrickmore, Co Tyrone, saw the Sinn Fein leadership in confident mood. Adams spoke, along with the party's vice president and candidate in the West Tyrone constituency, Pat Doherty the atmosphere was buoyant, and there were no Doubting Thomases in the audience.

The denunciations of southern politicians like John Bruton and Bertie Ahern cut no ice in those circles. A more intriguing question is whether they make an impact on the middle class nationalist floating vote in Northern Ireland.

Ahern's unique ranged wider than Sinn Fein, but inevitably it was the shafts he directed at the republican movement that attracted most attention. The influence of his foreign affairs spokesman, Ray Burke, was seen in the text. Burke, who would have little patience with Provo subtleties and rationalisations was part of the group which travelled North to hear the speech being delivered.

But no matter how much politicians south of the Border fume, observers believe Sinn Fein will still have a good Westminster election.

Senior UUP sources, by definition hostile to Sinn Fein, were predicting last week the republicans would win three seats, in West Belfast, Mid-Ulster and West Tyrone. Encouraged by John Hume's stinging attack on Sinn Fein in the Irish News, they were dismayed that within days he seemed to fall for the old ceasefire palaver yet again.

THEY pointed out that the UUP had shown flexibility in the talks by helping to keep the loyalist parties around the table, and this ought to have provided a "role model" for Sinn Fein. "You just don't feel you can trust them at the moment so you have to move on without them, but there is only so far you can go with the SDLP before they stop to wait for Sinn Fein," UUP sources said.

The political comings and goings may soon be overshadowed by a fresh eruption of communal tension and even violence. The first of the contentious parades is scheduled for Belfast's Ormeau Road on Easter Monday. Moderates have drawn comfort and encouragement from the conciliatory remarks of the Grand Master of the Orange Order, Robert Saulters, and from the fact that he stood side by side with Catholic Massgoers at Harryville.

But moderation tends to fall on stony ground in Northern Ireland.