How hitmen are evading the long arm of the law

THIS week the Minister for Justice, Mrs Owen, rejected the suggestion that the number of murders is growing and the rate of detection decreasing. But it's all a question of how you interpret the figures.

In 1994 there were 25 "violent deaths". This jumped to 41 last year. So far this year there have been 13 violent deaths, a rate which if sustained for the year will give a total of 39. That would represent only a slight decrease on 1995, and would mean the killing rate was staying more than 50 per cent above the 1994 level.

Meanwhile the rate of "detection" was 20 out of 25 deaths in 1994 (80 per cent), 31 out of 41 in 1994 (76 per cent), and there have been five arrests for this year's 13 violent deaths (38 per cent).

It may be unfair to expect early results from the most recent killings, but even the most generous interpretation of both sets of figures - quoted by the Minister at Templemore on Thursday - do not add up to a picture of fewer killings and more Garda success. Rather they support what is probably the public perception: more murders and fewer people apprehended for them.

Central to this has been the rise in "contract killing", the use of a "hitman" to carry out an assassination. The gardai have been keen to reject the suggestion that all recent "gangland" killings fall into this category, but acknowledge that at least some of them might.

When asked at Templemore about last weekend's shooting of John Kelly in Dublin, the Minister said: "Assassinations are particularly difficult to solve because there is no connection between the person murdered and the person who carried out the murder. They are hired in.

TWELVE murders in Dublin since the killing of Martin Cahill (the "General") in August 1994 bear the hallmarks of the professional "hit". But while most of the dead were criminals or had criminal connections, the reasons for the killings are varied. At least four of the murders appear to be the result of personal disputes.

In one case - the Gerry Lee killing - 15 members of one family have been questioned. Gardai believe the man's death resulted from his violent behaviour towards one member of that family.

A fight outside a nightclub in Tallaght is believed to have led to the McCabe and Brennan murders.

John Reddan was murdered in the Blue Lion pub in Parnell Street to avenge a previous killing, in which a man was stabbed to death outside a club.

A number of the murders may have been carried out directly by an aggrieved party, but the trend towards hired killers is growing. Some are said to be available for as little as £2,000 a job (although £400 has been quoted in Limerick). But a more "professional" operator costs more.

All a hitman needs to be told is the name and address of his victim, and perhaps one or two of his haunts. He can then watch his prey for a week or two, establish his movements and determine the best time to strike. At least seven of the 12 "gangland" murders since Cahill's death follow that pattern, with the victims killed while engaged in some part of their daily or weekly routine.

As the Minister suggested, the contract killer is much harder to catch than other murderers. He will usually do a thorough job. He will know something of police methods and leave few traces at the scene. But most importantly he will have no connection to the victim, and so will not be numbered among his victims enemies.

And whoever has hired him will make sure to have a good alibi for the moment the trigger was pulled. Gardai believe they have identified the people who ordered a number of recent "gangland" murders, but getting evidence is proving more difficult.

APART from contract killings, the growth in the number of shootings also arises from the greater availability of firearms, often imported with large consignments of drugs as the trafficker's "sweetener" in the deal. Compared to 10 years ago, relatively minor criminals are now more likely to be armed, and ready to use their weapons.

Those involved in the illegal drug trade are also playing for higher stakes: a "hitlist" of 40 dealers circulated in Dublin by a group with republican links claims one heroin dealer named is "making 25k a week".

Martin Cahill's killing was greeted with some satisfaction by a large number of gardai, who were aware of his appalling crimes. Among the force and the public at large, few tears have been shed for the victims of the 12 possible "hits" that have followed. The death of a petty criminal and drug dealer is not seen as a great loss to society.

The characterisation of these murders by the authorities as "thieves falling out" is an only slightly coded message to the public that it should not be as concerned about these killings as it might be about others.

The danger of this approach is that it leads to a certain complacency, that "let them kill each other" becomes a more widely held view. But the greater use of guns and the readiness of criminals to kill endanger everyone: a hitman might act on wrong information, or an innocent witness (such as Catherine Brennan in Tallaght appears to have been) can be killed.

Two women were in the room in which John Kelly was shot dead last Saturday. If the killer had been less "professional" about his work, or if he had burst into the room expecting to find Kelly alone, there could have been three bodies in Clondalkin that night instead of one.