Grounds for cautious and wary hope after latest North cliffhanger

One is told by reliable sources that Mr David Trimble likes to play solitaire from time to time as it gives him an opportunity to think. No doubt he was dealing out the cards this week as he awaited developments in the House of Commons. Mr Trimble had set out his stall: movement on decommissioning or I quit. Reports said that his pledge to resign was due to take effect today, although the text of the letter has not been published.

Most of the pressure was therefore on Sinn Fein and the IRA, although pressure has a way of shifting from one side to the other in this process.

Rarely has one seen Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness look as tired as they looked on emerging from Wednesday's meeting with the Taoiseach at Government Buildings. Word has it that the meeting was unsatisfactory from Dublin's viewpoint because of the size of the Sinn Fein delegation. Taoisigh and Prime Ministers like to deal with Gerry and Martin alone, it appears.

There were signs, too, yesterday that Mr Ahern was unhappy with the pace of progress in discussions with Sinn Fein and his statement issued mid-afternoon spoke of the need for "clarity" before he went to England to meet Mr Blair.

Meanwhile, hapless Irish journalists were pursuing a will-'o-the-wisp Prime Minister from Exeter to Plymouth, even finding themselves at one stage subject to a polite 40-minute sessions of close questioning from the police, clearly taken aback by the sound of so many Irish accents in close proximity to Mr Blair.

By early evening the shape of things to come began to emerge. Mr Mandelson would announce his intention to introduce legislation to suspend the institutions, but the British government intended to hasten slowly and the royal assent would not be given until midweek with the legislation coming into force next Thursday. And if the decommissioning difficulty had been resolved by then, why, the law need never be used.

"Clarity" is the great watchword. It was used by the Taoiseach, who said clarity, not "product", was the issue. It surfaced later in Mr Mandelson's statement to the Commons. One suspects that a great deal of work went into the statement beforehand and that Dublin's advice was most likely sought.

Everything is at stake in the next few days. Mr Trimble's future hangs in the balance and without him, the agreement will almost certainly fall. At least as serious, the eventual fate of the IRA ceasefire could be decided between now and Wednesday. The republican paramilitaries have been careful not to issue any threat to that effect, but one does not need a degree in guerrilla warfare studies to deduce that if the IRA withdraws from discussions with the decommissioning body, the collapse of its cessation becomes a much greater possibility.

One hears plausible reports of mandarins working themselves to the bone to find a way through the impasse. The setting of a date by Gen de Chastelain when decommissioning could start was reportedly one of the proposals on the table between Dublin and the republicans.

Mr Mandelson alluded to this when he told the Commons that definite information was needed about when the disposal of weapons would begin. For his part, Mr Trimble made a constructive reference to the need for serious discussion of modalities. It is clearly not enough for the IRA to enter talks with Gen de Chastelain - it needs to impress upon the wider world that it is seriously engaging with him and his colleagues.

Wistfully, sources close to the unionist leadership said that if this week's conciliatory IRA statement had been issued after the first ceasefire it could have laid to rest the fears which then prevailed about the permanence of that cessation and halted moves to introduce the decommissioning issue which was brought in, according to these sources, as a means of testing the IRA's commitment to peace. But, like so much else in this process, it was a case of too little, too late.

Nevertheless, there were grounds for cautious and wary hope after last night's events. A major British-Irish diplomatic rift appeared to be building up over the past few days but that danger has now receded. Mr Cowen talked tough to reassure republicans on Wednesday night but Mr Ahern stepped in yesterday to confirm that Dublin was keeping up the pressure on Sinn Fein. The soft-cop, hard-cop routine comes in handy at times like this.

The issue of publishing the de Chastelain report was deftly handled by the Secretary of State. If there were a further de Chastelain document, both would be released together so that people could compare the two. Clearly, the report delivered late last Monday night was not adequate for the task in hand. Since there is usually such a major input by the two governments into this type of document, this suggests that the negotiation process had also been inadequate.

Now, it's back to the drawingboard. As usual, there are no doubt dozens of drafts flying about, and those who convey messages from Glengall Street to Dublin and London and thence to Sinn Fein and the IRA will have a busy time of it.

The brave experiment at Stormont may yet weather this latest storm, but past experience suggests that the decommissioning issue never dies, it only makes temporary retreats. Perhaps it is time to entertain the heretical thought that noisy government and silent guns is better than noisy guns and no government.