Government awards itself a high score at end of a stressful term

After six months in which it endured constant pressure and criticism over the revelations connected with the Flood and Moriarty tribunals, the Government gave itself a midterm report yesterday that was almost uniformly positive.

And after all the talk of instability, Ministers were entitled to feel some relief and a little security as they left sunny Farmleigh after the last Cabinet meeting until autumn.

Both parties are committed to drawing up a renewed Programme for Government for the next two years; the economy is roaring on; three-quarters of the 1997 promises have been implemented; crime, tax and unemployment are down; Michael McDowell is Attorney General, and the PDs look happier than they have looked for quite some time.

The Government's document, called Progress Report at the End of Year Two, points to "huge progress" in Northern Ireland. There may be no executive but there is still a two-year ceasefire, a Good Friday agreement, and a review of the implementation of its institutions to come in September.

The report has the dramatic economic figures, including the creation of 95,000 jobs in the past year and the lowest unemployment rate in a generation, at 6.4 per cent. The live register figure is the lowest since 1983.

Taxes have been cut, a tax credit system has been introduced, 85,000 people have been taken out of the tax net and over £1 billion has been provided in personal tax reliefs in the last two budgets.

"Every government promised fundamental tax reform," the document says, "this Government has delivered." GDP is estimated to have grown by 9.5 per cent in 1998, and 7.7 per cent in 1997. Exports increased by 27 per cent last year. A Budget surplus of £1.7 billion is expected for 1999.

It also points to the agreement with the EU for a standard rate of corporation tax at 12.5 per cent, saying this ensures Ireland will remain an attractive and competitive destination for investors.

The first national minimum wage is expected to be implemented by April 1st, 2000.

The shape of the economy has been changing, too. The Telecom flotation is highlighted as a central achievement in the area of public enterprise. Cablelink has been sold to NTL. Strategic reports on the future of Aer Lingus and Aer Rianta are being evaluated.

Crime was central to Fianna Fail's attacks on the rainbow coalition while in opposition, and this document seeks to portray a major change in the crime situation, which it suggests came about as a result of Government action in the last two years.

The document says crime levels at the start of this year were 16 per cent lower than two years ago, and that in the first quarter of 1999 the figures were down a further 9 per cent. Garda numbers have been increased towards a target figure of 12,000 and 2,000 extra prison places have been provided.

The Criminal Assets Bureau has been a success, there have been large drugs seizures and a new charter for crime victims would be published shortly.

Some credit appears to be claimed for crime legislation originated by the rainbow coalition. "The drug barons who wreck (sic) such destruction are being brought to account thanks to a raft of tough new and innovative criminal legislation." Much of the tough new legislation, of course, was initiated by Mr John O'Donoghue's predecessor, Mrs Nora Owen, when she was being castigated by him for being soft on crime.

The legislation setting up the Criminal Assets Bureau was introduced by the rainbow coalition, but was influenced by private members' legislation Mr O'Donoghue had put forward. The Criminal Justice Act, including mandatory 10-year sentences for possession of drugs worth £10,000 or more, was initiated by Mr O'Donoghue.

The document details social inclusion measures, initiatives for young people in disadvantaged areas, an increase in the old-age pension of £11 in two years, improved medical card guidelines for those over 70 and taking the low-paid out of the tax net.

The length of hospital waiting lists was seen as a "crisis" in the July 1997 Programme for Government, yet it was not until March 1999 that the numbers on waiting lists fell for the first time since December 1996.

A total of £525 million will be spent on capital projects in the health area during the three years 1999 to 2001, compared with £309 million in the 1995-1997 period.

THE document goes through every main policy area. The original EU Commission proposals on agriculture, the report says, would have meant serious losses in Irish farming amounting to £1.4 billion over a seven-year period. However, the final agreement not only wiped out this loss but will deliver a significant gain. Total payments to the farming and food sector during 2000-2006 will be some £10 billion.

The report says there has been the largest concentrated programme to modernise education in the history of the State, with almost £300 million allocated to school capital projects. There has been the largest ever increase in direct funding for primary schools, with class sizes reduced to a maximum of 30 pupils.

Leaded petrol will be phased out next year, five years earlier than necessary. Vehicle registration tax has been restructured in favour of smaller cars and tax incentives have been introduced for park-and-ride facilities.

On foreign policy, the document says Ireland has spearheaded an international campaign to rekindle moves towards nuclear disarmament. Ireland is set to join Partnership for Peace in the autumn (a rapid policy turnaround for Fianna Fail).

The White Paper on Defence, which the Programme for Government said would be produced within a year of the Government's taking office in July 1997, has still not emerged. The White Paper will put in place a medium-term policy framework for the ongoing management and reorganisation of defence.

For all the exhaustive listing of achievements, the document is not entirely self-congratulatory. It says more work needs to be done in certain areas, such as making society inclusive, developing infrastructure and achieving a lasting settlement in the North.

There are a couple of unmentioned ghosts which could yet shake the newly reinforced cohesion of the Government. The Flood and Moriarty tribunals will resume their politically unpredictable courses in the autumn, while a plethora of investigations into companies arising from the McCracken tribunal and entirely separate revelations about banking are grinding on.

But Ministers will have a lot to distract them from these unpleasant matters in September. Intense negotiations will take place on a revised Programme for Government, tax cuts for the December budget, the £38 billion National Development Plan and a new social partnership agreement.

In short, there's money to spend, taxes to cut and a lot to play for in the North. It's plenty to keep a Government together, if only the unpleasant matters at Dublin Castle can remain under control.